2233 Welch Ave

Niagara Falls, NY 14303

$165,000B+

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,189 sqft · Built 1931 · MultiFamily · Pending · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,564/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$370
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$958
• Net cashflow: $2,370/mo
• Annual: $28,446/yr
• Cap rate: 23.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.57%
• DSCR: 3.74
• 1% rule: 2.77%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 3 × 5-bed/3.0-bath units multifamily listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($28k/yr) — positive. Per door: $790/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $165k).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1931 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 23.5% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,564/mo this rent would consume 120% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 230% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1931 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.