2233 Welch Ave · Niagara Falls, NY 14303

$165,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,189 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1931 3,720 sqft lot $75/sqft · 19% below area Est $205k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.3/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

This gorgeous, brick 3-family home is conveniently located on a beautiful tree-lined street and would make perfect for an owner-occupant or an investor! All three units are currently rented to long-term tenants who would love to stay. Especially since this home has been meticulously maintained since it was built in 1931. A new roof was just put on this gem as well as new siding on the dormers!

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Brick property
• Tree-lined street

Tags

• BRICK PROPERTY
• TREE-LINED STREET
• IMMEDIATE RENTAL INCOME
• MOVE-IN READY
• STRONG INCOME POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Three total units with separate gas and electric meters; Rents reported: one unit at $560, one unit at $750, another 2-bedroom rent listed in range; Owner pays hot water; rent includes hot water; Operating expense details: see remarks

Exterior

• Parking: Garage; Approximately 1.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Brick building; 2-story building; Existing/resale condition
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 30 x 124

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchens in each unit
• Bedrooms: One 1-bedroom unit (eat-in kitchen); Two 2-bedroom units (each with eat-in kitchen)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms (total across property)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Attic; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3 × 5-bed/3.0-bath units multifamily listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($28k/yr) — positive. Per door: $790/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $165k).
• Cap rate 23.5% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,564/mo this rent would consume 120% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 230% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1931 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $165,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1931 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.57%
• DSCR: 3.74
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $204,909
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -19.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
412 19th St	0.27mi	5/2.0	2,208 (+1%)	11mo	$80,000	$36	73
444 20th St	0.23mi	5/3.0	2,385 (+9%)	6mo	$25,000	$10	69
2219 Cudaback Ave	0.12mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (-9%)	8mo	$80,000	$40	64
417 18th St	0.29mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,080 (-5%)	10mo	$166,000	$80	61
2219 Walnut Ave	0.40mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,023 (-8%)	4mo	$62,500	$31	60
2460 Grand Ave	0.63mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,162 (-1%)	0mo	$175,000	$81	59
541 20th St	0.39mi	5/2.0	1,917 (-12%)	1mo	$112,000	$58	57
1744 Welch Ave	0.35mi	5/2.0	2,016 (-8%)	13mo	$166,000	$82	55
609 24th St	0.44mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (-9%)	4mo	$140,000	$70	52
2230 Grand Ave	0.61mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,348 (+7%)	11mo	$165,000	$70	45
2449 Grand Ave	0.59mi	5/2.0	1,918 (-12%)	4mo	$135,000	$70	44
519 Tronolone Pl	0.61mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,000 (-9%)	11mo	$142,500	$71	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 60.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.69×
• Total profit: $124,368
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 65.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.56×
• Total profit: $303,222
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14303

• Home prices YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,564 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$301 /mo · $3,613/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$958
• Net cashflow: $2,370

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,563

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,464	-5% $2,417	+0% $2,370	+5% $2,324	+10% $2,277
Rent	-10% $2,010	-5% $2,190	+0% $2,370	+5% $2,551	+10% $2,731
Rate	-1.0pp $2,454	-0.5pp $2,412	base $2,370	+0.5pp $2,328	+1.0pp $2,284

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	5	3	$4,563
Total (3 units)			$4,564

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2020 Forest Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,500	$0.94	17d	1	0.71mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $165,000 Active 802-char remark
2. 2023-04-21
   soldstatus $115,000
3. 2023-04-04
   soldstatus $115,000 Closed Sale or Rented 396-char remark

   Show marketing remark (396 chars)

   This gorgeous, brick 3-family home is conveniently located on a beautiful tree-lined street and would make perfect for an owner-occupant or an investor! All three units are currently rented to long-term tenants who would love to stay. Especially since this home has been meticulously maintained since it was built in 1931. A new roof was just put on this gem as well as new siding on the dormers!

4. 2022-12-29
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 396-char remark

   Show marketing remark (396 chars)

   This gorgeous, brick 3-family home is conveniently located on a beautiful tree-lined street and would make perfect for an owner-occupant or an investor! All three units are currently rented to long-term tenants who would love to stay. Especially since this home has been meticulously maintained since it was built in 1931. A new roof was just put on this gem as well as new siding on the dormers!

5. 2022-12-27
   listed $114,900 Active 396-char remark

   Show marketing remark (396 chars)

   This gorgeous, brick 3-family home is conveniently located on a beautiful tree-lined street and would make perfect for an owner-occupant or an investor! All three units are currently rented to long-term tenants who would love to stay. Especially since this home has been meticulously maintained since it was built in 1931. A new roof was just put on this gem as well as new siding on the dormers!

6. 2021-02-03
   soldstatus $65,000
7. 2021-01-28
   soldstatus $64,900 Closed Sale or Rented

   Show marketing remark (177 chars)

   Great investment property in the up and coming downtown district of Niagara Falls. Two of the three units are tenant occupied. Third unit can be owner occupied or turnkey ready.

8. 2020-09-29
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show

   Show marketing remark (177 chars)

   Great investment property in the up and coming downtown district of Niagara Falls. Two of the three units are tenant occupied. Third unit can be owner occupied or turnkey ready.

9. 2020-09-24
   historical Continue to Show- Under Contract

   Show marketing remark (177 chars)

   Great investment property in the up and coming downtown district of Niagara Falls. Two of the three units are tenant occupied. Third unit can be owner occupied or turnkey ready.

10. 2020-09-21
    listed $64,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (177 chars)

    Great investment property in the up and coming downtown district of Niagara Falls. Two of the three units are tenant occupied. Third unit can be owner occupied or turnkey ready.

11. 2017-10-06
    soldstatus $57,500
12. 2014-07-11
    historical
13. 2011-11-18
    soldstatus $19,500
14. 2011-07-18
    listed $26,500
15. 2010-01-22
    soldstatus $12,500
16. 2009-10-30
    listed $20,400
17. 2006-07-28
    soldstatus $39,140

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,613 · $301/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,613 · $301/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,768
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$3,613
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,381
• − Management: −$4,381
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $27,525
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,606
• After-tax cash flow: $21,840/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,156
• Household income: $45,646
• Rent vs Own: 55.7% rent · 44.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 230.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Two or more races 18% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 12% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.37%
• Current HPI: 311.8094
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+321.6% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $165,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2023-04-04 Sold (MLS) $115,000 WNYREIS
• 2022-12-29 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2022-12-27 Listed $114,900 WNYREIS
• 2021-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2021-01-28 Sold (MLS) $64,900 WNYREIS
• 2020-09-29 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2020-09-24 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2020-09-21 Listed $64,900 WNYREIS
• 2017-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $57,500 Public Records
• 2014-07-11 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2011-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $19,500 Public Records
• 2011-07-18 Listed $26,500 WNYREIS
• 2010-01-22 Sold (MLS) $12,500 WNYREIS
• 2009-10-30 Listed $20,400 WNYREIS
• 2006-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $39,140 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,613 · +19.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.