6653 Neptune Unit Share B

San Diego, CA 92037

$1,300,000F

3 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,124 sqft · Built 2012 · SingleFamily · Active · 376 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,232/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,817
• Tax + insurance: −$2,167
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,309
• Net cashflow: $-4,061/mo
• Annual: $-48,732/yr
• Cap rate: 2.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.39%
• DSCR: 0.40
• 1% rule: 0.48%
• Cash to close: $364,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $1.30M. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-49k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $712k (45.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $623k (52.1% below list).
• It's been on market 376 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.14M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $623k (52.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $88k of equity ($9k loan paydown + $79k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in CA, #4,206 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, cost of living F.
• San Diego Unified (urban): math 19% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #393 of 517 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: La Jolla Elementary (489 students, 18% FRL); Muirlands Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 696 students, 25% FRL); La Jolla High (1,227 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 52% district-wide (29 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 482 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 53d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$141k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 2.5% vs local median 2.1% in San Diego — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• At $6,232/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($147k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 376 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.