206 Westwood Dr

O'Fallon, IL 62269

$172,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 952 sqft · Built 1917 · SingleFamily · Pending · 137 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,589/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$902
• Tax + insurance: −$305
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $48/mo
• Annual: $573/yr
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.19%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $48,160

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $172k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $48 ($573/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (7.6% below list).
• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($151k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $151k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• O Fallon Twp Hsd 203 (suburban): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #145 of 620 in IL (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Marie Schaefer Elem School (math 45% / reading 33%, grade F, #439 of 2,056 statewide, top 21%, 642 students, 0% FRL); Fulton Jr High School (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #165 of 665 statewide, top 25%, 649 students, 0% FRL); O Fallon High School (math 32% / reading 40%, grade F, #120 of 693 statewide, top 17%, 2,521 students, 0% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 200 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $147k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.8% in O'Fallon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.