12220 5th St #195

Yucaipa, CA 92399

$98,000B+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,225 sqft · Built 1969 · Manufactured · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,924/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$514
• Tax + insurance: −$163
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $843/mo
• Annual: $10,116/yr
• Cap rate: 16.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.87%
• DSCR: 2.64
• 1% rule: 1.96%
• Cash to close: $27,440

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $98k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $843 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $98k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $678 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#334 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Yucaipa-Calimesa Joint Unified (suburban): math 32% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #195 of 517 in CA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 205 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 2.7% in Yucaipa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.