3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
864 sqft ·
Built 1942
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 8 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,388/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$774
Tax + insurance
−$278
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$291
Net cashflow
$45/mo
Annual
$539/yr
Cap rate
6.66%
Cash-on-cash
1.30%
DSCR
1.06
1% rule
0.94%
Cash to close
$41,300
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $148k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $45 ($539/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (5.9% below list).
Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $139k (5.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 78/100 on livability (#142 in IL, #2,604 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities D-.
Belleville Twp Hsd 201 (suburban): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #308 of 620 in IL (top 50%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Belleville High School-West (math 19% / reading 26%, grade F, #317 of 693 statewide, top 46%, 2,234 students, 0% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.5%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $47k; list at $148k implies a 216% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-07VTQ18REZ0T1X
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29