207 W Main St

Ash Grove, MO 65604

$199,900C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,200 sqft · Built 1878 · SingleFamily · Active · 93 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,968/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $173/mo
• Annual: $2,076/yr
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.71%
• DSCR: 1.17
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $173 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (1.6% below list).
• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $182k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#435 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities F.
• Ash Grove R-IV (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #121 of 324 in MO (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1878 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 5.4% in Ash Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1878 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.