11022 West Dr

Morongo Valley, CA 92256

$199,995C+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,016 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Pending · 200 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,841/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$296
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $109/mo
• Annual: $1,313/yr
• Cap rate: 7.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.03%
• DSCR: 1.22
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $55,999

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $109 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (8.0% below list).
• It's been on market 200 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#505 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Morongo Unified (town): math 15% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #395 of 517 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $90k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $200k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (5.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.1% in Morongo Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 200 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.