Water Lily Plan

Vermilion, OH 44089

$379,990B-

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,486 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 213 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,696/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,068
• Tax + insurance: −$657
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$986
• Net cashflow: $984/mo
• Annual: $11,809/yr
• Cap rate: 9.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.69%
• DSCR: 1.48
• 1% rule: 1.19%
• Cash to close: $110,442

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $380k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $984 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $380k).
• It's been on market 213 days — a 12% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $334k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in OH, #1,481 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Vermilion Local (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #316 of 656 in OH (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 128 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Erie County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 6.2% in Vermilion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,696/mo this rent would consume 78% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 213 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.