Water Lily Plan

Vermilion, OH 44089

$379,990C+

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,486 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 213 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,696/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,116
• Tax + insurance: −$672
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$986
• Net cashflow: $922/mo
• Annual: $11,064/yr
• Cap rate: 9.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.79%
• DSCR: 1.44
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $112,959

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $380k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $922 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $380k).
• It's been on market 213 days — a 12% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $334k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in OH, #1,481 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Vermilion Local (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #316 of 656 in OH (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Vermilion Elementary School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #670 of 1,584 statewide, top 45%, 534 students, 37% FRL); Sailorway Middle School (math 64% / reading 64%, grade B+, #221 of 654 statewide, top 35%, 507 students, 36% FRL); Vermilion High School (math 44% / reading 53%, grade D, #427 of 781 statewide, top 55%, 674 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 35% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 51d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 128 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Erie County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 2.9% in Vermilion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,696/mo this rent would consume 78% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 213 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.