Water Lily Plan · Vermilion, OH 44089

$379,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,486 sqft · SingleFamily · 213 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience the best of lakeside living at Aspire at Lighthouse Estates, a gorgeous community of single-family new-construction homes for sale in Vermilion, Ohio. Just moments from Harbourtown, golf courses, marinas, and the shores of Lake Erie, our stunning new homes offer airy open floorplans and our designer-curated Looks interiors. Discover your new home in this secluded retreat while enjoying proximity to recreation and commuter routes. Each of our new homes in Vermilion features thoughtful, quality craftsmanship. Our designer-curated Looks collections — Loft, Farmhouse, or Elements — provide a simple and transparently priced way for you to achieve a beautiful, cohesive interior that matches your style. Offered By: K. Hovnanian at Lighthouse Estates, LLC The Water Lily offers: Versatile home office off foyer for studying or telecommuting. On-trend kitchen with large center island overlooking great room. Open concept great room and dining area with 9' ceilings. Extra Suite on first floor for multi-generational living or guests. Gorgeous primary suite with bath and large walk-in closets. Second story laundry conveniently near bedrooms .

Key facts

• Large center island
• Extra suite
• Airy open floorplans

Tags

• NEW-CONSTRUCTION HOMES
• AIRY OPEN FLOORPLANS
• VERSATILE HOME OFFICE
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• OPEN CONCEPT GREAT ROOM
• EXTRA SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $379,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $403,425.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $380k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $922 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $380k).
• Recommended offer: $334k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 2.9% in Vermilion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in OH, #1,481 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Vermilion Local (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #316 of 656 in OH (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Vermilion Elementary School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #670 of 1,584 statewide, top 45%, 534 students, 37% FRL); Sailorway Middle School (math 64% / reading 64%, grade B+, #221 of 654 statewide, top 35%, 507 students, 36% FRL); Vermilion High School (math 44% / reading 53%, grade D, #427 of 781 statewide, top 55%, 674 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 35% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 51d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 128 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,696/mo this rent would consume 78% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 213 days — a 12% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $334,391 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 213 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.79%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $403,425
• List price: $379,990
• Delta: -5.81%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5937 Cape Hatteras Dr	0.00mi	5/4.0	2,516 (+1%)	1mo	$494,990	$197	93
5943 Cape Hatteras Dr	0.06mi	5/3.0	2,496 (+0%)	12mo	$446,928	$179	86
5939 Cape Hatteras Dr	0.05mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,101 (-16%)	9mo	$399,990	$190	60
5942 Cape Hatteras Dr	0.04mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,101 (-16%)	11mo	$410,052	$195	59
S/L 65 Cape Hatteras Dr	0.12mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,202 (-11%)	16mo	$459,990	$209	57
6031 Conneaut Light Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,098 (-16%)	12mo	$395,000	$188	56
6039 Conneaut Light Dr	0.09mi	4/4.0 (-1)	2,101 (-16%)	7mo	$395,000	$188	56
6035 Conneaut Light Dr	0.07mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,098 (-16%)	14mo	$392,000	$187	53
5267 Portage Dr	1.05mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,614 (+5%)	2mo	$900,000	$344	50
5408 Park Dr	0.92mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,321 (-7%)	10mo	$899,000	$387	40
14902 Kneisel Rd	0.99mi	5/2.5	2,816 (+13%)	20mo	$445,000	$158	25
203 Sassafras Dr	1.07mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,060 (-17%)	24mo	$275,000	$133	13

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-6,580
• Equity at exit: $60,152

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $70,172
• Equity at exit: $34,881

Cash invested: $112,959 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 3 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.0 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $385,490 ($174/sqft)
• Median days on market: 213 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -6.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 44089

• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,696 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,116
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$504 /mo · $6,051/yr
• Insurance: −$168
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$986
• Net cashflow: $922

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,529

Max offer price $403,425

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,201	-5% $1,061	+0% $922	+5% $783	+10% $643
Rent	-10% $551	-5% $736	+0% $922	+5% $1,107	+10% $1,293
Rate	-1.0pp $1,125	-0.5pp $1,025	base $922	+0.5pp $817	+1.0pp $711

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,856
• Closing costs: $12,103
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5821 South St Vermilion, OH	5.0	2.5	2007	$2,995	$1.49	22d	1	0.40mi
5012 Hollyview Dr Unit 1496126P Vermilion, OH	4.0	1.5	1679	$8,362	$4.98	93d	1	1.18mi
4861 Pineview Dr Unit 1496121P Vermilion, OH	5.0	2.0	2055	$6,645	$3.23	51d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $379,990 Active 213 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $379,990 Active 212 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $379,990 Active 211 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $379,990 Active 209 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $379,990 Active 205 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $379,990 Active 204 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $379,990 Active 203 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $379,990 Active 200 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $379,990 Active 199 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $379,990 Active 198 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $379,990 Active 197 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $379,990 Active 196 DOM
13. 2026-01-23
    price $379,990 1173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1173 chars)

    Experience the best of lakeside living at Aspire at Lighthouse Estates, a gorgeous community of single-family new-construction homes for sale in Vermilion, Ohio. Just moments from Harbourtown, golf courses, marinas, and the shores of Lake Erie, our stunning new homes offer airy open floorplans and our designer-curated Looks interiors. Discover your new home in this secluded retreat while enjoying proximity to recreation and commuter routes. Each of our new homes in Vermilion features thoughtful, quality craftsmanship. Our designer-curated Looks collections — Loft, Farmhouse, or Elements — provide a simple and transparently priced way for you to achieve a beautiful, cohesive interior that matches your style. Offered By: K. Hovnanian at Lighthouse Estates, LLC The Water Lily offers: Versatile home office off foyer for studying or telecommuting. On-trend kitchen with large center island overlooking great room. Open concept great room and dining area with 9' ceilings. Extra Suite on first floor for multi-generational living or guests. Gorgeous primary suite with bath and large walk-in closets. Second story laundry conveniently near bedrooms .

14. 2026-01-03
    price $387,990 1173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1173 chars)

    Experience the best of lakeside living at Aspire at Lighthouse Estates, a gorgeous community of single-family new-construction homes for sale in Vermilion, Ohio. Just moments from Harbourtown, golf courses, marinas, and the shores of Lake Erie, our stunning new homes offer airy open floorplans and our designer-curated Looks interiors. Discover your new home in this secluded retreat while enjoying proximity to recreation and commuter routes. Each of our new homes in Vermilion features thoughtful, quality craftsmanship. Our designer-curated Looks collections — Loft, Farmhouse, or Elements — provide a simple and transparently priced way for you to achieve a beautiful, cohesive interior that matches your style. Offered By: K. Hovnanian at Lighthouse Estates, LLC The Water Lily offers: Versatile home office off foyer for studying or telecommuting. On-trend kitchen with large center island overlooking great room. Open concept great room and dining area with 9' ceilings. Extra Suite on first floor for multi-generational living or guests. Gorgeous primary suite with bath and large walk-in closets. Second story laundry conveniently near bedrooms .

15. 2025-12-28
    price $392,990 1173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1173 chars)

    Experience the best of lakeside living at Aspire at Lighthouse Estates, a gorgeous community of single-family new-construction homes for sale in Vermilion, Ohio. Just moments from Harbourtown, golf courses, marinas, and the shores of Lake Erie, our stunning new homes offer airy open floorplans and our designer-curated Looks interiors. Discover your new home in this secluded retreat while enjoying proximity to recreation and commuter routes. Each of our new homes in Vermilion features thoughtful, quality craftsmanship. Our designer-curated Looks collections — Loft, Farmhouse, or Elements — provide a simple and transparently priced way for you to achieve a beautiful, cohesive interior that matches your style. Offered By: K. Hovnanian at Lighthouse Estates, LLC The Water Lily offers: Versatile home office off foyer for studying or telecommuting. On-trend kitchen with large center island overlooking great room. Open concept great room and dining area with 9' ceilings. Extra Suite on first floor for multi-generational living or guests. Gorgeous primary suite with bath and large walk-in closets. Second story laundry conveniently near bedrooms .

16. 2025-12-23
    price $391,490 1173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1173 chars)

    Experience the best of lakeside living at Aspire at Lighthouse Estates, a gorgeous community of single-family new-construction homes for sale in Vermilion, Ohio. Just moments from Harbourtown, golf courses, marinas, and the shores of Lake Erie, our stunning new homes offer airy open floorplans and our designer-curated Looks interiors. Discover your new home in this secluded retreat while enjoying proximity to recreation and commuter routes. Each of our new homes in Vermilion features thoughtful, quality craftsmanship. Our designer-curated Looks collections — Loft, Farmhouse, or Elements — provide a simple and transparently priced way for you to achieve a beautiful, cohesive interior that matches your style. Offered By: K. Hovnanian at Lighthouse Estates, LLC The Water Lily offers: Versatile home office off foyer for studying or telecommuting. On-trend kitchen with large center island overlooking great room. Open concept great room and dining area with 9' ceilings. Extra Suite on first floor for multi-generational living or guests. Gorgeous primary suite with bath and large walk-in closets. Second story laundry conveniently near bedrooms .

17. 2025-12-03
    price $390,990 1173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1173 chars)

    Experience the best of lakeside living at Aspire at Lighthouse Estates, a gorgeous community of single-family new-construction homes for sale in Vermilion, Ohio. Just moments from Harbourtown, golf courses, marinas, and the shores of Lake Erie, our stunning new homes offer airy open floorplans and our designer-curated Looks interiors. Discover your new home in this secluded retreat while enjoying proximity to recreation and commuter routes. Each of our new homes in Vermilion features thoughtful, quality craftsmanship. Our designer-curated Looks collections — Loft, Farmhouse, or Elements — provide a simple and transparently priced way for you to achieve a beautiful, cohesive interior that matches your style. Offered By: K. Hovnanian at Lighthouse Estates, LLC The Water Lily offers: Versatile home office off foyer for studying or telecommuting. On-trend kitchen with large center island overlooking great room. Open concept great room and dining area with 9' ceilings. Extra Suite on first floor for multi-generational living or guests. Gorgeous primary suite with bath and large walk-in closets. Second story laundry conveniently near bedrooms .

18. 2025-11-16
    listed $391,490 Active 1173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1173 chars)

    Experience the best of lakeside living at Aspire at Lighthouse Estates, a gorgeous community of single-family new-construction homes for sale in Vermilion, Ohio. Just moments from Harbourtown, golf courses, marinas, and the shores of Lake Erie, our stunning new homes offer airy open floorplans and our designer-curated Looks interiors. Discover your new home in this secluded retreat while enjoying proximity to recreation and commuter routes. Each of our new homes in Vermilion features thoughtful, quality craftsmanship. Our designer-curated Looks collections — Loft, Farmhouse, or Elements — provide a simple and transparently priced way for you to achieve a beautiful, cohesive interior that matches your style. Offered By: K. Hovnanian at Lighthouse Estates, LLC The Water Lily offers: Versatile home office off foyer for studying or telecommuting. On-trend kitchen with large center island overlooking great room. Open concept great room and dining area with 9' ceilings. Extra Suite on first floor for multi-generational living or guests. Gorgeous primary suite with bath and large walk-in closets. Second story laundry conveniently near bedrooms .

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,354
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,598
• − Property taxes: −$6,051
• − Insurance: −$2,017
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,508
• − Management: −$4,508
• − Depreciation: −$11,736
• Taxable income: $4,935
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,184
• After-tax cash flow: $9,879/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Vermilion, Ohio, is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It offers a great opportunity for investors looking to maximize both resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can improve the kitchen's functionality and appeal to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 57/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Vermilion Elementary School B- OH #670/1,584 Nat'l #7,252/41,679 Middle Sailorway Middle School B+ OH #221/654 Nat'l #1,362/14,009 High Vermilion High School D OH #427/781 Nat'l #6,127/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vermilion Local
• NCES district ID: 3904682
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $52,091
• Composite: 49.61/100
• National rank: #1981
• State rank: #316 of 656 in OH

A Composite livability gradescore 81/100

Livability — Vermilion

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #96
• US rank: #1481

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vermilion, OH
• County: Erie · 73,204 people
• Metro: Sandusky, OH
• Population (ZIP): 15,873
• Household income: $72,045
• Rent vs Own: 18.6% rent · 81.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,204 people
• By 2030: 71,341 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 66,771 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 62,512 · -14.6%
• By 2075: 56,154 · -23.3%
• By 2100: 49,045 · -33.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: R (+14.1) · D 42.5% · R 56.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.0pp toward R · 2008: 13.9pp · 2024: -14.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.1 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+9.8 2012: D+11.3 2008: D+13.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.76%
• Current HPI: 206.8223
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $379,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $387,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-28 Price Changed $392,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-23 Price Changed $391,490 Zillow
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $390,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-16 Listed $391,490 Zillow