1042 Runaway Bay Rd

Motley, VA 24571

$485,000B-

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,381 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Pending · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,543
• Tax + insurance: −$379
• HOA: −$46
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,008
• Net cashflow: $824/mo
• Annual: $9,885/yr
• Cap rate: 8.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.28%
• DSCR: 1.32
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $135,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $485k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $824 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $480k (1.0% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $480k (1.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#446 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Campbell County Public School District (rural): math 55% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #55 of 131 in VA (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 315 units permitted in Campbell County in 2024 (51 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Campbell County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $485k implies a 710% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $136k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.9% in Motley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.