1532 Howard St

San Francisco, CA 94103

$4,498,000D

None bd · 15.0 ba · 5,334 sqft · Built 2019 · Townhouse · Active · 125 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,586/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$23,588
• Tax + insurance: −$7,822
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$753
• Net cashflow: $-28,577/mo
• Annual: $-342,926/yr
• Cap rate: -1.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -27.23%
• DSCR: -0.21
• 1% rule: 0.08%
• Cash to close: $1,259,440

Investor read

• This is a ?-bed/15.0-bath townhouse listed at $4.50M. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-29k ($-343k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $410k (90.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $359k (92.0% below list).
• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($3.96M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $359k (92.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $254k of equity ($31k loan paydown + $223k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+15.5%/yr); 108 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 173233% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$408k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate -1.3% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 92% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.