1034 Tennessee Trl

Arlington, TX 76017

$200,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,077 sqft · Built 1986 · Townhouse · Pending · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,889/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$363
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $80/mo
• Annual: $962/yr
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.72%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $80 ($962/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (5.5% below list).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $189k (5.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#75 in TX, #2,697 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Mansfield ISD (suburban): math 47% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #125 of 826 in TX (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Glenn Harmon El (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 430 students, 87% FRL); T A Howard Middle (math 30% / reading 43%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 687 students, 76% FRL); Mansfield Summit H S (math 44% / reading 48%, grade D-, #627 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 1,856 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 35% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Mansfield ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 201 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.6% in Arlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.