15 Wilderness Dr

Lake Panasoffkee, FL 33538

$145,000C-

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1980 · Manufactured · Active · 236 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,411/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$70
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $175/mo
• Annual: $2,098/yr
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.17%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $175 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (2.7% below list).
• It's been on market 236 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#332 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Panasoffkee Elementary School (math 62% / reading 66%, grade B, #552 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 584 students, 65% FRL); South Sumter Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 897 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $145k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 6.0% in Lake Panasoffkee — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 236 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.