15 Wilderness Dr · Lake Panasoffkee, FL 33538

$145,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 236 Days on market

Built 1980 6,500 sqft lot Est $120k · 21% over $70/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this fully furnished home that is move in ready and water accessible with a private boat ramp. A perfect home to retire or have as a weekend retreat away from the hustle and bustle. Just across the road is also a public boat ramp, with picnic tables and a bridge to fish from, or launch a boat to access the Withlacoochee River and the beautiful Lake Panasoffkee (some of the best fishing around). The home has a work shop with its own bathroom and a nice shed that is set up for a second work shop. This place is only minutes to the West Coast and shopping, golfing, dining, and free entertainment are only minutes away in The Villages. Come check this place out soon, it may not last long.

Key facts

• Picnic area
• Private water access
• Bridge to fish from

Tags

• PRIVATE WATER ACCESS
• WORKSHOP WITH BATHROOM
• DETACHED SHED FOR STORAGE
• PICNIC AREA
• BRIDGE TO FISH FROM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total living area reported as 1,152 square feet; Lot size about 0.15 acres (approx. 604 m²)
• Financial info: Annual taxes listed (2024): $927
• HOA & community: HOA: Rivers Estates; Monthly HOA fee $70 (required); association approval required; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available and connected; Electricity available and connected
• Home design: Residential modular home; Single-story; East-facing; Homesteaded
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a 0.15-acre lot
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Sliding doors; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen and family room combined; Solid surface counters; Sliding doors; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $175 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (2.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 5.1% in Lake Panasoffkee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#332 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Panasoffkee Elementary School (math 62% / reading 66%, grade B, #552 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 584 students, 65% FRL); South Sumter Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 897 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 236 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $145k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 236 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.17%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $119,808
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3617 CR 406	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,152 (0%)	4mo	$120,000	$104	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.99% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $44,435
• Equity at exit: $82,059

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.07×
• Total profit: $124,746
• Equity at exit: $141,530

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33538

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,411 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $584/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,189

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $257	-5% $216	+0% $175	+5% $134	+10% $93
Rent	-10% $63	-5% $119	+0% $175	+5% $231	+10% $286
Rate	-1.0pp $248	-0.5pp $212	base $175	+0.5pp $137	+1.0pp $99

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $145,000 Active 236 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $145,000 Active 234 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 233 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 232 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 231 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 230 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 228 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 227 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 225 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $145,000 Active 224 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,000 Active 223 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 222 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 217 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 216 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 215 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $145,000 Active 214 DOM
17. 2026-03-26
    price $145,000
18. 2026-02-17
    price $149,900
19. 2026-02-12
    price $154,900
20. 2025-10-28
    listed $159,900 Active
21. 2025-05-09
    historical
22. 2025-02-12
    price $155,000
23. 2025-02-10
    listed $15,300 Active
24. 2021-04-12
    soldstatus $90,000
25. 2021-04-02
    soldstatus $90,000 Closed 700-char remark

    Show marketing remark (700 chars)

    Come see this fully furnished home that is move in ready and water accessible with a private boat ramp. A perfect home to retire or have as a weekend retreat away from the hustle and bustle. Just across the road is also a public boat ramp, with picnic tables and a bridge to fish from, or launch a boat to access the Withlacoochee River and the beautiful Lake Panasoffkee (some of the best fishing around). The home has a work shop with its own bathroom and a nice shed that is set up for a second work shop. This place is only minutes to the West Coast and shopping, golfing, dining, and free entertainment are only minutes away in The Villages. Come check this place out soon, it may not last long.

26. 2021-03-29
    status Pending 700-char remark

    Show marketing remark (700 chars)

    Come see this fully furnished home that is move in ready and water accessible with a private boat ramp. A perfect home to retire or have as a weekend retreat away from the hustle and bustle. Just across the road is also a public boat ramp, with picnic tables and a bridge to fish from, or launch a boat to access the Withlacoochee River and the beautiful Lake Panasoffkee (some of the best fishing around). The home has a work shop with its own bathroom and a nice shed that is set up for a second work shop. This place is only minutes to the West Coast and shopping, golfing, dining, and free entertainment are only minutes away in The Villages. Come check this place out soon, it may not last long.

27. 2021-02-18
    status Pending 700-char remark

    Show marketing remark (700 chars)

    Come see this fully furnished home that is move in ready and water accessible with a private boat ramp. A perfect home to retire or have as a weekend retreat away from the hustle and bustle. Just across the road is also a public boat ramp, with picnic tables and a bridge to fish from, or launch a boat to access the Withlacoochee River and the beautiful Lake Panasoffkee (some of the best fishing around). The home has a work shop with its own bathroom and a nice shed that is set up for a second work shop. This place is only minutes to the West Coast and shopping, golfing, dining, and free entertainment are only minutes away in The Villages. Come check this place out soon, it may not last long.

28. 2021-02-09
    listed $90,000 Active 700-char remark

    Show marketing remark (700 chars)

    Come see this fully furnished home that is move in ready and water accessible with a private boat ramp. A perfect home to retire or have as a weekend retreat away from the hustle and bustle. Just across the road is also a public boat ramp, with picnic tables and a bridge to fish from, or launch a boat to access the Withlacoochee River and the beautiful Lake Panasoffkee (some of the best fishing around). The home has a work shop with its own bathroom and a nice shed that is set up for a second work shop. This place is only minutes to the West Coast and shopping, golfing, dining, and free entertainment are only minutes away in The Villages. Come check this place out soon, it may not last long.

29. 1983-08-01
    soldstatus $31,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $584 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,204 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$619/yr (+$52/mo · 106.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,927
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$584
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,354
• − Management: −$1,354
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$271
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$65
• After-tax cash flow: $2,163/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Panasoffkee

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #5777

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Panasoffkee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 5,748

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.99%
• Current HPI: 329.8431
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+360.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $154,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-28 Listed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-09 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-12 Price Changed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-10 Listed $15,300 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2021-04-02 Sold (MLS) $90,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-09 Listed $90,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1983-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $31,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $584 · -37.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.