51 1st St

Murray, KY 42020

$67,000B+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built 2020 · Manufactured · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $871/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$351
• Tax + insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$183
• Net cashflow: $225/mo
• Annual: $2,699/yr
• Cap rate: 10.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.39%
• DSCR: 1.64
• 1% rule: 1.30%
• Cash to close: $18,760

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $67k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $225 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($871 rent vs $67k).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $66k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($463 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#380 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Calloway County (town): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #19 of 165 in KY (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Calloway Elementary School (math 42% / reading 45%, grade F, #162 of 676 statewide, top 24%, 573 students, 69% FRL); Calloway County Middle School (math 38% / reading 52%, grade D, #35 of 217 statewide, top 16%, 674 students, 57% FRL); Calloway County High School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #18 of 254 statewide, top 7%, 856 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Calloway County in 2024 (66 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Calloway County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.5% in Murray — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.