51 1st St · Murray, KY 42020

$67,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured · 23 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 0.71 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Affordable country living with room to spread out! This well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath singlewide mobile home sits on a large lot offering plenty of outdoor space for gardening, pets, recreation, or future improvements. Inside, you'll find a comfortable floor plan with a spacious living area and a functional kitchen. Enjoy the peaceful setting while still being conveniently located to nearby amenities. Whether you're looking for your first home, downsizing, or searching for an investment opportunity, this property offers great potential at an affordable price.

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Spacious living area
• Large lot

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• PEACEFUL SETTING
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Exterior features: Level lot; Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $67k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $225 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($871 rent vs $67k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.6% in Murray — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#380 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Calloway County (town): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #19 of 165 in KY (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Calloway County in 2024 (66 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($463 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Calloway County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,995 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.39%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.71×
• Total profit: $50,827
• Equity at exit: $60,359

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.38×
• Total profit: $138,439
• Equity at exit: $130,166

Cash invested: $18,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42020

• Home prices YoY: 10.4%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $871 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$351
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$84 /mo · $1,005/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$183
• Net cashflow: $225

Break-even live

Break-even rent $586

Max offer price $67,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $271	-5% $248	+0% $225	+5% $202	+10% $179
Rent	-10% $156	-5% $190	+0% $225	+5% $259	+10% $294
Rate	-1.0pp $259	-0.5pp $242	base $225	+0.5pp $208	+1.0pp $190

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,750
• Closing costs: $2,010
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $67,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $67,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $67,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $67,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $67,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $67,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $67,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $67,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $67,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $67,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $67,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $67,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $67,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $67,000 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-29
    listed $67,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,449
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,753
• − Property taxes: −$1,005
• − Insurance: −$335
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$836
• − Management: −$836
• − Depreciation: −$1,949
• Taxable income: $1,735
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$416
• After-tax cash flow: $2,282/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained singlewide mobile home offers a good condition with a good ROI potential for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and can increase the home's value
• Resale Trim and paint exterior trim — Fresh trim and paint can improve the home's appearance and increase its value
• Resale Replace any damaged windows — New windows can improve energy efficiency and increase the home's value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and can increase the home's value ↑
• Resale Trim and paint exterior trim — Fresh trim and paint can improve the home's appearance and increase its value ↑
• Resale Replace any damaged windows — New windows can improve energy efficiency and increase the home's value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Calloway County
• NCES district ID: 2100870
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $38,849
• Composite: 38.39/100
• National rank: #4208
• State rank: #19 of 165 in KY

Livability — Murray

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #380
• US rank: #18091

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 30,981
• Population (ZIP): 2,215

Population outlook (Calloway County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 41,071 people
• By 2030: 42,608 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 45,435 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 48,501 · +18.1%
• By 2075: 56,481 · +37.5%
• By 2100: 63,271 · +54.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Scotch-Irish 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Calloway

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.0) · D 30.2% · R 68.1% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.0 2020: R+31.8 2016: R+35.0 2012: R+27.4 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.44%
• Current HPI: 269.0871
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $67,000 WKRMLS