102 Blossum Blvd

Falcon Mesa, TX 78076

$62,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,148 sqft · Built 1970 · Manufactured · Active · 96 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,065/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$325
• Tax + insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$13
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $436/mo
• Annual: $5,227/yr
• Cap rate: 14.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.11%
• DSCR: 2.34
• 1% rule: 1.72%
• Cash to close: $17,360

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $62k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $436 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $62k).
• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $56k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($429 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 36/100 on livability (#1,652 in TX) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Zapata County ISD (town): math 21% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #767 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP.
• Zapata County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.