102 Blossum Blvd · Falcon Mesa, TX 78076

$62,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,148 sqft · Manufactured public records · 96 Days on market

Built 1970 5,563 sqft lot $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Livability +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy mobile home in great condition available for purchase in the only gated community in Zapata, Texas! If you are moving down for warm weather, spectacular sunsets and trips to the world famous Falcon Lake then this is your place! Comfortable and affordable in a peaceful neighborhood! This place is perfect for any person looking to retire and live in tranquility. Call today!

Key facts

• 5,563 sq ft lot
• Built 1970
• Listed 96 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $62k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $436 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $62k).
• Recommended offer: $56k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 36/100 on livability (#1,652 in TX) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Zapata County ISD (town): math 21% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #767 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($429 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Zapata County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $56,420 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.11%
• DSCR: 2.34
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $33,936
• Equity at exit: $26,521

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.81×
• Total profit: $83,555
• Equity at exit: $39,847

Cash invested: $17,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78076

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,065 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$325
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $500/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $436

Break-even live

Break-even rent $514

Max offer price $62,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $471	-5% $453	+0% $436	+5% $418	+10% $400
Rent	-10% $351	-5% $393	+0% $436	+5% $478	+10% $520
Rate	-1.0pp $467	-0.5pp $451	base $436	+0.5pp $419	+1.0pp $403

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,500
• Closing costs: $1,860
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $62,000 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $62,000 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $62,000 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $62,000 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $62,000 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $62,000 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $62,000 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $62,000 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $62,000 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $62,000 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $62,000 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $62,000 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $62,000 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $62,000 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $62,000 Active 77 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $62,000 Active 76 DOM
17. 2026-03-14
    listed $62,000 Active 379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (379 chars)

    Cozy mobile home in great condition available for purchase in the only gated community in Zapata, Texas! If you are moving down for warm weather, spectacular sunsets and trips to the world famous Falcon Lake then this is your place! Comfortable and affordable in a peaceful neighborhood! This place is perfect for any person looking to retire and live in tranquility. Call today!

18. 2007-08-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $500 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,135 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$634/yr (+$53/mo · 126.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,778
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,473
• − Property taxes: −$500
• − Insurance: −$310
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,022
• − Management: −$1,022
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$1,804
• Taxable income: $4,491
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,078
• After-tax cash flow: $4,149/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Zapata County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846710
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $30,189
• Composite: 18.09/100
• National rank: #8974
• State rank: #767 of 826 in TX

Livability — Falcon Mesa

• Score: 36/100
• State rank: #1652
• US rank: #27633

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Falcon Mesa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,085

Population outlook (Zapata County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,795 people
• By 2030: 14,837 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 14,759 · -0.2%
• By 2050: 14,316 · -3.2%
• By 2075: 11,647 · -21.3%
• By 2100: 7,265 · -50.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 94% Two or more races 52% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 89%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 16% English-only · Spanish 84% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Zapata

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.4) · D 38.5% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -58.0pp toward R · 2008: 35.6pp · 2024: -22.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.4 2020: R+5.3 2016: D+32.8 2012: D+43.2 2008: D+35.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Current HPI: 117.0315
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Listed $62,000 LAOR
• 2007-08-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $500 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.