3419 Oak St

Heber-Overgaard, AZ 85928

$319,000D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Active · 255 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,387/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax + insurance: −$276
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $-63/mo
• Annual: $-757/yr
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $89,320

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $319k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-757/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $308k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (25.2% below list).
• It's been on market 255 days — a 12% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $239k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392) (rural): math 52% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #51 of 249 in AZ (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $68/mo.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $180k; list at $319k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.2% in Heber-Overgaard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 255 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.