3419 Oak St · Heber-Overgaard, AZ 85928

$319,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · Manufactured public records · 255 Days on market

Built 1997 0.36 ac lot $158/sqft · 18% above area Est $270k · 18% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

This fabulous four-bedroom, two-bathroom home boasts a great room concept and an open floor plan. The recently remodeled large kitchen features new cabinets, granite counters, and stainless steel appliances. The kitchen and great room have new LV wood plank flooring, truly the perfect home for entertaining! The unique split floor plan separates the owner's suite from the secondary bedrooms. Each bedroom has ample closet space and plenty of storage throughout the house, ensuring an opportunity for amazing organization. The property offers ample outdoor living space with front and back porches. It's situated on a corner lot with a fenced-in backyard, providing safety for small children and pets. Conveniently, there's a two-car carport that can be easily converted into a garage plus...

Key facts

• 0.36 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1997

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $319k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-757/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $308k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (25.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.2% in Heber-Overgaard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392) (rural): math 52% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #51 of 249 in AZ (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 255 days — a 12% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $180k; list at $319k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $68/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $238,744 (25.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 255 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,729
• List price: $319,000
• Delta: 18.27%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3412 Butts Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (-11%)	19mo	$489,000	$273	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.86% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-394
• Equity at exit: $106,537

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $51,177
• Equity at exit: $139,767

Cash invested: $89,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85928

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,387 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $906/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$68 /mo · $814/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $-63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,467

Max offer price $307,861

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,750
• Closing costs: $9,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $319,000 Active 255 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,000 Active 254 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,000 Active 253 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,000 Active 252 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,000 Active 251 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $319,000 Active 249 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $319,000 Active 248 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,000 Active 245 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $319,000 Active 244 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $319,000 Active 243 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $319,000 Active 242 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $319,000 Active 239 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $319,000 Active 238 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $319,000 Active 237 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $319,000 Active 236 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $319,000 Active 235 DOM
17. 2026-03-31
    price $319,000 795-char remark

    Show marketing remark (795 chars)

    This fabulous four-bedroom, two-bathroom home boasts a great room concept and an open floor plan. The recently remodeled large kitchen features new cabinets, granite counters, and stainless steel appliances. The kitchen and great room have new LV wood plank flooring, truly the perfect home for entertaining! The unique split floor plan separates the owner's suite from the secondary bedrooms. Each bedroom has ample closet space and plenty of storage throughout the house, ensuring an opportunity for amazing organization. The property offers ample outdoor living space with front and back porches. It's situated on a corner lot with a fenced-in backyard, providing safety for small children and pets. Conveniently, there's a two-car carport that can be easily converted into a garage plus...

18. 2026-03-30
    status Active 963-char remark

    Show marketing remark (963 chars)

    This fabulous four-bedroom, two-bathroom home boasts a great room concept and an open floor plan. The recently remodeled large kitchen features new cabinets, granite counters, and stainless steel appliances. The kitchen and great room have new LV wood plank flooring, truly the perfect home for entertaining! The unique split floor plan separates the owner's suite from the secondary bedrooms. Each bedroom has ample closet space and plenty of storage throughout the house, ensuring an opportunity for amazing organization. The property offers ample outdoor living space with front and back porches. It's situated on a corner lot with a fenced-in backyard, providing safety for small children and pets. Conveniently, there's a two-car carport that can be easily converted into a garage plus... 20 X 14 shed and a chicken coop! The lot extends 20 feet behind the back fence,The location is fantastic, close to excellent schools. You will want to see this home.

19. 2026-03-30
    status Active 795-char remark

    Show marketing remark (963 chars)

    This fabulous four-bedroom, two-bathroom home boasts a great room concept and an open floor plan. The recently remodeled large kitchen features new cabinets, granite counters, and stainless steel appliances. The kitchen and great room have new LV wood plank flooring, truly the perfect home for entertaining! The unique split floor plan separates the owner's suite from the secondary bedrooms. Each bedroom has ample closet space and plenty of storage throughout the house, ensuring an opportunity for amazing organization. The property offers ample outdoor living space with front and back porches. It's situated on a corner lot with a fenced-in backyard, providing safety for small children and pets. Conveniently, there's a two-car carport that can be easily converted into a garage plus... 20 X 14 shed and a chicken coop! The lot extends 20 feet behind the back fence,The location is fantastic, close to excellent schools. You will want to see this home.

20. 2026-03-30
    price $319,000 963-char remark

    Show marketing remark (963 chars)

    This fabulous four-bedroom, two-bathroom home boasts a great room concept and an open floor plan. The recently remodeled large kitchen features new cabinets, granite counters, and stainless steel appliances. The kitchen and great room have new LV wood plank flooring, truly the perfect home for entertaining! The unique split floor plan separates the owner's suite from the secondary bedrooms. Each bedroom has ample closet space and plenty of storage throughout the house, ensuring an opportunity for amazing organization. The property offers ample outdoor living space with front and back porches. It's situated on a corner lot with a fenced-in backyard, providing safety for small children and pets. Conveniently, there's a two-car carport that can be easily converted into a garage plus... 20 X 14 shed and a chicken coop! The lot extends 20 feet behind the back fence,The location is fantastic, close to excellent schools. You will want to see this home.

21. 2025-11-19
    historical 795-char remark

    Show marketing remark (963 chars)

    This fabulous four-bedroom, two-bathroom home boasts a great room concept and an open floor plan. The recently remodeled large kitchen features new cabinets, granite counters, and stainless steel appliances. The kitchen and great room have new LV wood plank flooring, truly the perfect home for entertaining! The unique split floor plan separates the owner's suite from the secondary bedrooms. Each bedroom has ample closet space and plenty of storage throughout the house, ensuring an opportunity for amazing organization. The property offers ample outdoor living space with front and back porches. It's situated on a corner lot with a fenced-in backyard, providing safety for small children and pets. Conveniently, there's a two-car carport that can be easily converted into a garage plus... 20 X 14 shed and a chicken coop! The lot extends 20 feet behind the back fence,The location is fantastic, close to excellent schools. You will want to see this home.

22. 2025-11-19
    historical 963-char remark

    Show marketing remark (963 chars)

    This fabulous four-bedroom, two-bathroom home boasts a great room concept and an open floor plan. The recently remodeled large kitchen features new cabinets, granite counters, and stainless steel appliances. The kitchen and great room have new LV wood plank flooring, truly the perfect home for entertaining! The unique split floor plan separates the owner's suite from the secondary bedrooms. Each bedroom has ample closet space and plenty of storage throughout the house, ensuring an opportunity for amazing organization. The property offers ample outdoor living space with front and back porches. It's situated on a corner lot with a fenced-in backyard, providing safety for small children and pets. Conveniently, there's a two-car carport that can be easily converted into a garage plus... 20 X 14 shed and a chicken coop! The lot extends 20 feet behind the back fence,The location is fantastic, close to excellent schools. You will want to see this home.

23. 2025-07-21
    price $329,990 795-char remark

    Show marketing remark (963 chars)

    This fabulous four-bedroom, two-bathroom home boasts a great room concept and an open floor plan. The recently remodeled large kitchen features new cabinets, granite counters, and stainless steel appliances. The kitchen and great room have new LV wood plank flooring, truly the perfect home for entertaining! The unique split floor plan separates the owner's suite from the secondary bedrooms. Each bedroom has ample closet space and plenty of storage throughout the house, ensuring an opportunity for amazing organization. The property offers ample outdoor living space with front and back porches. It's situated on a corner lot with a fenced-in backyard, providing safety for small children and pets. Conveniently, there's a two-car carport that can be easily converted into a garage plus... 20 X 14 shed and a chicken coop! The lot extends 20 feet behind the back fence,The location is fantastic, close to excellent schools. You will want to see this home.

24. 2025-07-21
    price $329,990 963-char remark

    Show marketing remark (963 chars)

    This fabulous four-bedroom, two-bathroom home boasts a great room concept and an open floor plan. The recently remodeled large kitchen features new cabinets, granite counters, and stainless steel appliances. The kitchen and great room have new LV wood plank flooring, truly the perfect home for entertaining! The unique split floor plan separates the owner's suite from the secondary bedrooms. Each bedroom has ample closet space and plenty of storage throughout the house, ensuring an opportunity for amazing organization. The property offers ample outdoor living space with front and back porches. It's situated on a corner lot with a fenced-in backyard, providing safety for small children and pets. Conveniently, there's a two-car carport that can be easily converted into a garage plus... 20 X 14 shed and a chicken coop! The lot extends 20 feet behind the back fence,The location is fantastic, close to excellent schools. You will want to see this home.

25. 2025-05-29
    listed $339,990 Active 963-char remark

    Show marketing remark (795 chars)

    This fabulous four-bedroom, two-bathroom home boasts a great room concept and an open floor plan. The recently remodeled large kitchen features new cabinets, granite counters, and stainless steel appliances. The kitchen and great room have new LV wood plank flooring, truly the perfect home for entertaining! The unique split floor plan separates the owner's suite from the secondary bedrooms. Each bedroom has ample closet space and plenty of storage throughout the house, ensuring an opportunity for amazing organization. The property offers ample outdoor living space with front and back porches. It's situated on a corner lot with a fenced-in backyard, providing safety for small children and pets. Conveniently, there's a two-car carport that can be easily converted into a garage plus...

26. 2025-05-29
    listed $339,990 Active 795-char remark

    Show marketing remark (795 chars)

    This fabulous four-bedroom, two-bathroom home boasts a great room concept and an open floor plan. The recently remodeled large kitchen features new cabinets, granite counters, and stainless steel appliances. The kitchen and great room have new LV wood plank flooring, truly the perfect home for entertaining! The unique split floor plan separates the owner's suite from the secondary bedrooms. Each bedroom has ample closet space and plenty of storage throughout the house, ensuring an opportunity for amazing organization. The property offers ample outdoor living space with front and back porches. It's situated on a corner lot with a fenced-in backyard, providing safety for small children and pets. Conveniently, there's a two-car carport that can be easily converted into a garage plus...

27. 2020-09-20
    soldstatus $180,000
28. 2020-09-10
    soldstatus $180,000
29. 2012-06-07
    soldstatus $32,900
30. 2000-05-25
    soldstatus $86,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $906 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,105 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,199/yr (+$100/mo · 132.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone D · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,649
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,869
• − Property taxes: −$906
• − Insurance: −$2,409
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,292
• − Management: −$2,292
• − Depreciation: −$9,280
• Taxable loss: −$6,399
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,536
• After-tax cash flow: $779/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392)
• NCES district ID: 0400026
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,916
• Composite: 40.42/100
• National rank: #3727
• State rank: #51 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Heber-Overgaard

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 376

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6% Slovak 6% Lithuanian 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.86%
• Current HPI: 443.6984
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+270.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $319,000 WMMLS
• 2026-03-30 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Relisted — WMMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $319,000 ARMLS
• 2025-11-19 Delisted — WMMLS
• 2025-11-19 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $329,990 WMMLS
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $329,990 ARMLS
• 2025-05-29 Listed $339,990 ARMLS
• 2025-05-29 Listed $339,990 WMMLS
• 2020-09-20 Sold (MLS) $180,000 WMMLS
• 2020-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2012-06-07 Sold (MLS) $32,900 WMMLS
• 2000-05-25 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $906 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.