5101 River Rd #907

Bethesda, MD 20816

$199,000D+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Built 1969 · Condo · Active · 252 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,787/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$264
• HOA: −$1,001
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$585
• Net cashflow: $-106/mo
• Annual: $-1,275/yr
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.29%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 1.40%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-106 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (9.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $199k).
• It's been on market 252 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#67 in MD, #2,463 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F.
• Montgomery County Public Schools (suburban): math 27% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #3 of 24 in MD (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.
• Market conditions: 370 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,880 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (2,054 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $199k implies a 143% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 0.8% in Bethesda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($233k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 252 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?