5101 River Rd #907 · Bethesda, MD 20816

$199,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Condo public records · 252 Days on market

Built 1969 $191/sqft · 27% below area Est $273k · 27% under $1001/mo HOA · 36% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Incredible new price for this large one-bedroom condo with garage parking in The Kenwood, a wonderful building in a great location so close to DC, Bethesda, shopping and entertainment! The table-space kitchen and bath have been remodeled and show very well, plus the parquet wood floors maintain some of the original charm of the property. The living space is quite large, with a separate dining area and a spacious covered balcony. The bedroom also offers loads of space, including an enviable walk-in closet! The deeded garage parking space with direct entry into the building is a sought-after amenity, and the condo offers on-site management with a 24-hour concierge! Other amenities include an outdoor pool and an exercise room. With all utilities included in the condo fee and today's lower interest rates, this unit is an unbeatable value in today's market!

Key facts

• Parquet wood floors
• Walk-in closet
• Table-space kitchen

Tags

• TABLE-SPACE KITCHEN
• REMODELED BATH
• PARQUET WOOD FLOORS
• SEPARATE DINING AREA
• SPACIOUS COVERED BALCONY
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-106 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (9.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 0.8% in Bethesda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#67 in MD, #2,463 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F.
• Montgomery County Public Schools (suburban): math 27% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #3 of 24 in MD (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 370 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,880 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (2,054 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($233k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 252 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $199k implies a 143% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 252 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.29%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,819
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -27.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-38,396
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-39,645
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20816

• Active inventory: 370
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,787 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,168/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$1,001
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$585
• Net cashflow: $-106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,922

Max offer price $180,237

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $6	-5% $-50	+0% $-106	+5% $-163	+10% $-219
Rent	-10% $-326	-5% $-216	+0% $-106	+5% $4	+10% $114
Rate	-1.0pp $-6	-0.5pp $-56	base $-106	+0.5pp $-158	+1.0pp $-210

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5101 River Rd Bethesda, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1176	$2,190	$1.86	3d	2	0.02mi
5101 River Rd Bethesda, MD	2.0–3.0	2.0	1401	$2,600	$1.86	44d	2	0.02mi
5325 Westbard Ave Bethesda, MD	3.0	1.0–2.5	1166	$3,316	$2.84	0d	12	0.33mi
4701 Willard Ave Chevy Chase, MD	3.0	1.0–2.5	1471	$2,706	$1.84	0d	34	0.37mi
5301 Westbard Cir Bethesda, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1347	$2,500	$1.86	19d	1	0.44mi
4615 N Park Ave Chevy Chase, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1373	$1,850	$1.35	0d	13	0.46mi
4601 N Park Ave Unit 210K Chevy Chase, MD	1.0	1.0	860	$2,350	$2.73	19d	1	0.52mi
4601 N Park Ave Unit 510K Chevy Chase, MD	1.0	1.0	860	$2,600	$3.02	25d	1	0.52mi
4550 N Park Ave Chevy Chase, MD	1.0	1.0	1000	$2,300	$2.30	44d	1	0.56mi
4515 Willard Ave Unit 1414S Chevy Chase, MD	1.0	1.0	883	$2,685	$3.04	5d	1	0.58mi
4515 Willard Ave Chevy Chase, MD	1.0	1.0	781	$2,318	$2.97	44d	2	0.60mi
4515 Willard Ave Chevy Chase, MD	1.0	1.0	893	$2,518	$2.82	20d	2	0.60mi
4500 N Park Ave Chevy Chase, MD	1.0	1.0	900	$2,450	$2.72	44d	1	0.62mi
5500 Friendship Blvd Chevy Chase, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	801	$2,338	$2.92	0d	3	0.63mi
5500 Friendship Blvd Chevy Chase, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	807	$2,250	$2.79	23d	5	0.63mi
4440 Willard Ave Bethesda, MD	3.0	1.0–2.0	988	$3,384	$3.42	0d	36	0.73mi
5480 Wisconsin Ave Chevy Chase, MD	3.0	1.0–2.0	1034	$2,480	$2.40	0d	54	0.74mi
5300 Wisconsin Ave NW Washington, DC	3.0	1.0–2.5	1175	$4,206	$3.58	3d	77	0.87mi
4301 Military Rd NW #208 Washington, DC	2.0	2.0	898	$3,250	$3.62	25d	1	0.92mi
4800 Chevy Chase Dr Chevy Chase, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1167	$2,350	$2.01	6d	1	0.94mi
4720 Chevy Chase Dr #401 Chevy Chase, MD	1.0	1.0	832	$2,350	$2.82	4d	1	0.98mi
5079 Bradley Blvd Bethesda, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0	782	$1,653	$2.11	3d	21	0.99mi
6722 Offutt Ln Unit 204A Chevy Chase, MD	1.0	1.0	744	$2,100	$2.82	25d	1	1.01mi
7001 Arlington Rd Bethesda, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	921	$2,532	$2.75	4d	10	1.09mi
7036 Strathmore St #109 Chevy Chase, MD	2.0	1.0	793	$2,695	$3.40	44d	1	1.14mi
7025 Strathmore St Chevy Chase, MD	1.0	1.0	820	$1,895	$2.31	15d	1	1.15mi
7000 Wisconsin Ave Chevy Chase, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	920	$3,452	$3.75	0d	14	1.15mi
7170 Woodmont Ave Chevy Chase, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1068	$2,412	$2.26	0d	9	1.19mi
7077 Woodmont Ave Bethesda, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	972	$3,325	$3.42	0d	13	1.21mi
7131 Arlington Rd Bethesda, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	987	$2,505	$2.54	4d	21	1.22mi
5003 Sentinel Dr Bethesda, MD	2.0	1.0	1060	$2,800	$2.64	25d	1	1.23mi
5003 Sentinel Dr #22 Bethesda, MD	2.0	1.0	1020	$2,800	$2.75	16d	1	1.23mi
5011 Sentinel Dr #61 Bethesda, MD	2.0	1.0	1011	$2,600	$2.57	44d	1	1.26mi
4514 Albemarle St NW Washington, DC	1.0	1.0	1300	$1,700	$1.31	19d	1	1.29mi
4710 Elm St Bethesda, MD	3.0	1.0–3.0	1130	$3,947	$3.49	0d	39	1.30mi
4915 Hampden Ln Bethesda, MD	2.0	2.0	1137	$3,975	$3.50	44d	1	1.31mi
4700 Hampden Ln Bethesda, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	765	$3,488	$4.56	0d	126	1.34mi
4901 Montgomery Ln Bethesda, MD	2.0	2.0	1068	$4,160	$3.90	0d	2	1.36mi
4222 River Rd NW Unit A Washington, DC	1.0	1.0	900	$2,350	$2.61	6d	1	1.36mi
7342 Wisconsin Ave Bethesda, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	974	$6,370	$6.54	0d	178	1.38mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,001 · $12,012/yr
• Likely covers: pooldoorman
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 252 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 249 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 248 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 247 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 246 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 244 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 240 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 239 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 238 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 234 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 233 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 232 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 231 DOM
14. 2026-05-10
    status Active 865-char remark

    Show marketing remark (865 chars)

    Incredible new price for this large one-bedroom condo with garage parking in The Kenwood, a wonderful building in a great location so close to DC, Bethesda, shopping and entertainment! The table-space kitchen and bath have been remodeled and show very well, plus the parquet wood floors maintain some of the original charm of the property. The living space is quite large, with a separate dining area and a spacious covered balcony. The bedroom also offers loads of space, including an enviable walk-in closet! The deeded garage parking space with direct entry into the building is a sought-after amenity, and the condo offers on-site management with a 24-hour concierge! Other amenities include an outdoor pool and an exercise room. With all utilities included in the condo fee and today's lower interest rates, this unit is an unbeatable value in today's market!

15. 2026-05-06
    historical Active Under Contract 865-char remark

    Show marketing remark (865 chars)

    Incredible new price for this large one-bedroom condo with garage parking in The Kenwood, a wonderful building in a great location so close to DC, Bethesda, shopping and entertainment! The table-space kitchen and bath have been remodeled and show very well, plus the parquet wood floors maintain some of the original charm of the property. The living space is quite large, with a separate dining area and a spacious covered balcony. The bedroom also offers loads of space, including an enviable walk-in closet! The deeded garage parking space with direct entry into the building is a sought-after amenity, and the condo offers on-site management with a 24-hour concierge! Other amenities include an outdoor pool and an exercise room. With all utilities included in the condo fee and today's lower interest rates, this unit is an unbeatable value in today's market!

16. 2026-01-08
    price $199,000 865-char remark

    Show marketing remark (865 chars)

    Incredible new price for this large one-bedroom condo with garage parking in The Kenwood, a wonderful building in a great location so close to DC, Bethesda, shopping and entertainment! The table-space kitchen and bath have been remodeled and show very well, plus the parquet wood floors maintain some of the original charm of the property. The living space is quite large, with a separate dining area and a spacious covered balcony. The bedroom also offers loads of space, including an enviable walk-in closet! The deeded garage parking space with direct entry into the building is a sought-after amenity, and the condo offers on-site management with a 24-hour concierge! Other amenities include an outdoor pool and an exercise room. With all utilities included in the condo fee and today's lower interest rates, this unit is an unbeatable value in today's market!

17. 2025-10-08
    listed $235,000 Active 865-char remark

    Show marketing remark (865 chars)

    Incredible new price for this large one-bedroom condo with garage parking in The Kenwood, a wonderful building in a great location so close to DC, Bethesda, shopping and entertainment! The table-space kitchen and bath have been remodeled and show very well, plus the parquet wood floors maintain some of the original charm of the property. The living space is quite large, with a separate dining area and a spacious covered balcony. The bedroom also offers loads of space, including an enviable walk-in closet! The deeded garage parking space with direct entry into the building is a sought-after amenity, and the condo offers on-site management with a 24-hour concierge! Other amenities include an outdoor pool and an exercise room. With all utilities included in the condo fee and today's lower interest rates, this unit is an unbeatable value in today's market!

18. 1986-10-02
    soldstatus $82,000
19. 1980-12-19
    soldstatus $80,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,168 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,168 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$1/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,447
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,168
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,676
• − Management: −$2,676
• − HOA: −$12,012
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$4,015
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$964
• After-tax cash flow: $-311/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400480
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $97,191
• Composite: 35.62/100
• National rank: #4889
• State rank: #3 of 24 in MD

Livability — Bethesda

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #2463

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bethesda, MD
• County: Montgomery County · 961,106 people
• City population: 88,389
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 18,140
• Household income: $232,656
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 468.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,173,231 people
• By 2030: 1,237,402 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 1,365,115 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,491,592 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 1,803,893 · +53.8%
• By 2100: 2,035,619 · +73.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.3) · D 75.2% · R 21.9% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.7pp toward D · 2008: 44.6pp · 2024: 53.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.3 2020: D+59.6 2016: D+55.5 2012: D+43.4 2008: D+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -489.25%
• Current HPI: 272.5101
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+147.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-06 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $199,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-08 Listed $235,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1986-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 1980-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $80,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,168 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.