464 Lopus Rd

Naugatuck, CT 06403

$125,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 716 sqft · Built 1959 · Manufactured · Under Contract · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,139/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$204
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $830/mo
• Annual: $9,962/yr
• Cap rate: 14.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.46%
• DSCR: 2.27
• 1% rule: 1.71%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $830 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#42 in CT, #2,997 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute D-.
• Regional School District 16 (suburban): math 49% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #50 of 153 in CT (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 502 units permitted in Naugatuck Valley Planning Region in 2024 (171 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $125k implies a 212% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.3% vs local median 3.4% in Naugatuck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.