464 Lopus Rd · Naugatuck, CT 06403

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 716 sqft · Manufactured public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1959 1.20 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

If you have been searching for land, privacy, and potential, this 1.2 acre property could be exactly what you have been waiting for. Tucked away in a quiet setting, this mobile home sits on a beautiful lot with space around you and room to create something special. The home itself offers 2 bedrooms, 1 full bathroom, and 716 square feet. You enter through a front room that could function as a dining area and includes a wood stove. To the right is an additional flexible space that could serve as an office, den, or storage area. Straight ahead is the kitchen and living room, and down the hallway are two bedrooms and a full bath. The home will need renovations to be brought back to livable cond

Key facts

• Flexible space
• Wood stove
• 1.2 acre property

Tags

• 1.2 ACRE PROPERTY
• QUIET SETTING
• WOOD STOVE
• FLEXIBLE SPACE
• KITCHEN AND LIVING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $830 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.3% vs local median 3.4% in Naugatuck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#42 in CT, #2,997 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute D-.
• Regional School District 16 (suburban): math 49% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #50 of 153 in CT (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 502 units permitted in Naugatuck Valley Planning Region in 2024 (171 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $125k implies a 212% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.46%
• DSCR: 2.27
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $32,649
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.76×
• Total profit: $96,636
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06403

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,139 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $830

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,088

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $901	-5% $866	+0% $830	+5% $795	+10% $759
Rent	-10% $661	-5% $746	+0% $830	+5% $915	+10% $999
Rate	-1.0pp $893	-0.5pp $862	base $830	+0.5pp $798	+1.0pp $765

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2 N Main St Beacon Falls, CT	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	892	$2,650	$2.97	3d	10	1.03mi
13 Church St Beacon Falls, CT	2.0	1.0	650	$1,600	$2.46	24d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-18
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-02-26
   listed $125,000 Active
3. 1996-06-28
   soldstatus $40,000
4. 1996-06-27
   soldstatus $40,000
5. 1995-03-13
   listed $49,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,824 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,250 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: +$426/yr (+$35/mo · 23.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,668
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,824
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,053
• − Management: −$2,053
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $8,474
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,034
• After-tax cash flow: $7,929/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Regional School District 16
• NCES district ID: 0903538
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $88,265
• Composite: 52.59/100
• National rank: #1560
• State rank: #50 of 153 in CT

Livability — Naugatuck

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #42
• US rank: #2997

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 31,823
• Population (ZIP): 6,089

Population outlook (Naugatuck Valley County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 496,846

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Russian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Naugatuck Valley

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.4) · D 45.6% · R 53.0% · Other 1.4%
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.75%
• Current HPI: 183.2378
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+150.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $125,000 Smart MLS
• 1996-06-28 Sold (MLS) $40,000 Smart MLS
• 1996-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1995-03-13 Listed $49,900 Smart MLS

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2023): $1,824 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.