319 Nola Ln

Dundee, FL 33838

$243,990D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,570 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,856/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,499
• Tax + insurance: −$477
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $-510/mo
• Annual: $-6,121/yr
• Cap rate: 4.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.65%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $80,060

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $244k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-510 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (13.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (23.9% below list).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $186k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#638 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandhill Elementary School (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,932 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 991 students, 55% FRL); Denison Middle School (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 738 students, 69% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 252 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 30d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $1,856/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($45k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?