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319 Nola Ln 🏗️ New Construction
D- Composite 39.48
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • Appreciation +10.0/10.0
  • ARV discount +7.5/15.0
  • Cash flow +6.4/30.0
  • Condition / age +5.0/5.0
  • Livability +3.2/5.0
  • Rent growth +2.5/5.0
  • Schools +2.5/10.0
  • 1% rule +1.6/10.0
  • DSCR +0.7/10.0

$243,990

319 Nola Ln · Dundee, FL 33838
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,570 sqft · SingleFamily · 73 Days on market
Built 2026 Excellent condition 2-car garage ↓ 4% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

With a modern and low-maintenance design, this new three-bedroom home provides convenient single-story living. Upon entry, two bedrooms frame a full bathroom, leading to an open-concept layout shared between a modern kitchen, an elegant dining room and a comfortable Great Room. A generous owner's suite provides a private retreat at the back of the home with direct access to a full bathroom and a walk-in closet.

Key facts

  • 2 garage spots
  • Built 2026
  • Listed 72 days

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
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🏗️ New construction. The $243,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $285,930.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $244k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-492 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (12.0% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (23.0% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $188k (23.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 65/100 on livability (#638 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
  • Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Sandhill Elementary School (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,932 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 991 students, 55% FRL); Denison Middle School (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 738 students, 69% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
  • Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
  • Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 66d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • At $1,878/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($45k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

  • In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
  • Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
  • By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $187,833 (23.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
  8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
  9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
  10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.66%
Cap rate
4.23%
Cash-on-cash
-7.38%
DSCR
0.67
GRM
12.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$285,930
List price
$243,990
Delta
-14.67%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
2 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
749 Lake Dell Ave 1.16mi 3/2.0 1,707 (+9%) 1mo $269,999 $158 50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
19.1%
Equity multiple
2.55×
Total profit
$124,410
Equity at exit
$257,588
10-year hold
IRR
17.6%
Equity multiple
5.88×
Total profit
$391,072
Equity at exit
$555,499

Cash invested: $80,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
16 active · 7 under contract
Months of supply
48.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$287,945 ($167/sqft)
Median days on market
43 d
This list price
6% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+9.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33838

Home prices YoY
17.6%
Active inventory
232
Price-to-rent
10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$1,878 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,499
Tax est. 1.5%
$357 /mo · $4,289/yr
Insurance
$119
HOA
$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$394
Net cashflow
$-492

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,501
Max offer price $214,720
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-295 -5% $-393 +0% $-492 +5% $-591 +10% $-690
Rent -10% $-641 -5% $-566 +0% $-492 +5% $-418 +10% $-344
Rate -1.0pp $-348 -0.5pp $-419 base $-492 +0.5pp $-566 +1.0pp $-642

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$71,482
Closing costs
$8,578
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 27 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
319 Sol Vista Dr Dundee, FL 3.0 2.5 1768 $1,695 $0.96 86d 1 0.39mi
512 Hart Ln Dundee, FL 3.0 2.5 1768 $1,690 $0.96 7d 1 0.40mi
618 Poppy Ln Unit 1 Dundee, FL 3.0 2.5 1628 $1,750 $1.07 9d 1 0.42mi
618 Poppy Ln Dundee, FL 3.0 2.5 1736 $1,680 $0.97 5d 1 0.42mi
624 Poppy Ln Dundee, FL 3.0 3.0 1787 $1,800 $1.01 9d 1 0.42mi
391 Sol Vista Dr Dundee, FL 3.0 2.5 1768 $1,950 $1.10 119d 1 0.44mi
403 Sol Vista Dr Dundee, FL 3.0 2.5 1630 $1,950 $1.20 119d 1 0.45mi
1005 Edmund Ave Dundee, FL 3.0 2.0 1776 $1,686 $0.95 65d 1 0.46mi
697 Poppy Ln Dundee, FL 2.0 2.5 1574 $1,655 $1.05 3d 1 0.47mi
430 Sol Vista Dr Dundee, FL 2.0–3.0 2.5 1695 $1,890 $1.11 9d 1 0.47mi
228 Hillcrest Dr Dundee, FL 4.0 2.0 1928 $2,075 $1.08 73d 1 0.52mi
1804 Vista View Dr Dundee, FL 4.0 3.0 2066 $2,250 $1.09 9d 1 0.62mi
1804 Vista View Dr Dundee, FL 4.0 3.0 2066 $2,250 $1.09 119d 1 0.62mi
1709 Hill Top Dr Dundee, FL 4.0 3.0 2072 $2,160 $1.04 99d 1 0.63mi
217 Betty Ave S Dundee, FL 3.0 2.0 1150 $1,650 $1.43 119d 1 0.85mi
1608 Fitzgerald Dr Dundee, FL 3.0 2.0 1401 $1,749 $1.25 0d 1 0.87mi
1609 Steely Dr Dundee, FL 3.0 2.0 1616 $2,150 $1.33 9d 1 0.94mi
1207 Coda Ct Dundee, FL 3.0 2.0 2040 $1,695 $0.83 93d 1 0.95mi
1760 Canaan Loop Dundee, FL 4.0 2.0 1869 $2,300 $1.23 71d 1 1.01mi
1544 Swan Lake Cir Dundee, FL 3.0 2.0 1401 $1,871 $1.34 65d 1 1.02mi
1804 Canaan Loop Dundee, FL 3.0 2.0 1563 $1,905 $1.22 5d 1 1.06mi
1571 Swan Lake Cir Dundee, FL 4.0 2.0 1869 $1,985 $1.06 5d 1 1.08mi
1378 Legatto Loop Dundee, FL 3.0 2.0 1397 $1,800 $1.29 85d 1 1.10mi
770 Lake Dell Ave Dundee, FL 4.0 3.0 2170 $2,500 $1.15 7d 1 1.16mi
2163 Mandarin Loop Dundee, FL 3.0 2.0 1688 $1,869 $1.11 63d 1 1.20mi
604 Lime Ave Dundee, FL 3.0 3.0 1694 $2,100 $1.24 88d 1 1.23mi
702 Lemon Ave Dundee, FL 3.0 2.0 1198 $1,800 $1.50 110d 1 1.29mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Total annual fees $780 (monthly equivalent $65)
Financial info
Other annual assessment $2,096Lease restrictions apply
HOA & community
Homeowners association required (association: GARRISON PROPERTY SERVICES / AMELISA KIRKLAND)Monthly HOA $65 (annual $780)HOA includes pool, maintenance of grounds, and escrow reservesAssociation approval requiredCommunity poolPets allowed

Exterior

Parking
Attached 2-car garage (18 x 20) with garage door openerDriveway
Security
Smoke detector(s)
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewerElectricity available and connectedCable available and connectedFiber opticsUnderground utilities
Home design
Single family residenceOne storyUnder construction (projected completion August 14, 2026)North-facing
Construction
Frame and other construction materialsShingle roofSlab foundationNew constructionBuilt by Lennar Homes (Model: Mays)
Exterior features
PatioPorchSliding doorsPaved, private lotStreet lights in communityIrrigation equipment

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRangeRefrigeratorSolid surface countersSolid wood cabinets
Bedrooms
3 bedrooms
Flooring
CarpetCeramic tile
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
Interior features
In-wall pest control systemKitchen and family room comboOpen floorplanSolid surface countersSolid wood cabinetsThermostatWalk-in closet(s)Thermal windows
Laundry & utility
Inside laundryWasherDryerInside utility / family room utility area

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-08-14
    days on marketlisting id $243,990 Active 73 DOM
  2. 2026-08-13
    days on market $243,990 Active 69 DOM
  3. 2026-08-12
    days on market $243,990 Active 68 DOM
  4. 2026-08-12
    price $243,990 Active 67 DOM
  5. 2026-08-11
    days on market $253,990 Active 67 DOM
  6. 2026-08-10
    days on market $253,990 Active 66 DOM
  7. 2026-08-09
    days on market $253,990 Active 65 DOM
  8. 2026-08-08
    days on market $253,990 Active 64 DOM
  9. 2026-08-07
    days on market $253,990 Active 63 DOM
  10. 2026-08-06
    days on market $253,990 Active 62 DOM
  11. 2026-08-05
    days on market $253,990 Active 61 DOM
  12. 2026-08-04
    days on market $253,990 Active 60 DOM
  13. 2026-08-03
    days on market $253,990 Active 59 DOM
  14. 2026-07-31
    days on market $253,990 Active 56 DOM
  15. 2026-07-30
    days on market $253,990 Active 55 DOM
  16. 2026-07-30
    days on market $253,990 Active 54 DOM
  17. 2026-07-28
    days on market $253,990 Active 53 DOM
  18. 2026-07-26
    days on market $253,990 Active 51 DOM
  19. 2026-07-24
    days on market $253,990 Active 49 DOM
  20. 2026-07-23
    days on market $253,990 Active 48 DOM
  21. 2026-07-22
    days on market $253,990 Active 47 DOM
  22. 2026-07-21
    days on market $253,990 Active 46 DOM
  23. 2026-07-19
    days on market $253,990 Active 43 DOM
  24. 2026-07-18
    days on market $253,990 Active 42 DOM
  25. 2026-07-16
    days on market $253,990 Active 41 DOM
  26. 2026-07-15
    days on market $253,990 Active 40 DOM
  27. 2026-07-14
    days on market $253,990 Active 39 DOM
  28. 2026-07-13
    days on market $253,990 Active 38 DOM
  29. 2026-07-12
    days on market $253,990 Active 37 DOM
  30. 2026-07-11
    days on market $253,990 Active 36 DOM
  31. 2026-07-09
    days on market $253,990 Active 34 DOM
  32. 2026-07-07
    days on market $253,990 Active 32 DOM
  33. 2026-07-06
    days on market $253,990 Active 31 DOM
  34. 2026-07-05
    days on market $253,990 Active 30 DOM
  35. 2026-07-03
    days on market $253,990 Active 28 DOM
  36. 2026-07-02
    days on market $253,990 Active 27 DOM
  37. 2026-07-01
    days on market $253,990 Active 26 DOM
  38. 2026-06-30
    days on market $253,990 Active 25 DOM
  39. 2026-06-29
    days on market $253,990 Active 24 DOM
  40. 2026-06-28
    days on market $253,990 Active 23 DOM
  41. 2026-06-28
    days on market $253,990 Active 22 DOM
  42. 2026-06-27
    days on market $253,990 Active 21 DOM
  43. 2026-06-25
    days on market $253,990 Active 19 DOM
  44. 2026-06-23
    days on market $253,990 Active 17 DOM
  45. 2026-06-22
    pricedays on market $253,990 Active 16 DOM
  46. 2026-06-18
    days on market $258,990 Active 13 DOM
  47. 2026-06-17
    price $258,990 Active 12 DOM
  48. 2026-06-17
    days on market $268,990 Active 12 DOM
  49. 2026-06-16
    pricedays on market $268,990 Active 11 DOM
    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    With a modern and low-maintenance design, this new three-bedroom home provides convenient single-story living. Upon entry, two bedrooms frame a full bathroom, leading to an open-concept layout shared between a modern kitchen, an elegant dining room and a comfortable Great Room. A generous owner's suite provides a private retreat at the back of the home with direct access to a full bathroom and a walk-in closet.

  50. 2026-06-15
    days on market $263,990 Active 10 DOM
    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    With a modern and low-maintenance design, this new three-bedroom home provides convenient single-story living. Upon entry, two bedrooms frame a full bathroom, leading to an open-concept layout shared between a modern kitchen, an elegant dining room and a comfortable Great Room. A generous owner's suite provides a private retreat at the back of the home with direct access to a full bathroom and a walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
  • 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$22,540
− Mortgage interest
−$16,017
− Property taxes
−$4,289
− Insurance
−$1,430
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,803
− Management
−$1,803
− Depreciation
−$8,318
Taxable loss
−$11,120
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$2,669
After-tax cash flow
$-3,237/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This modern single-story home is under construction and is expected to be move-in ready upon completion. It features a spacious kitchen, two full bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior with a modern design. The home is in excellent condition and requires minimal repairs or maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Landscaping enhancement — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more buyers.
  • Both Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and modern.
  • Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and technologically advanced.
F Composite school gradezoned avg 25/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Sandhill Elementary School F FL #1,932/2,144 Nat'l #27,846/41,679 Middle Denison Middle School F FL #522/571 Nat'l #10,474/14,009 High Haines City Senior High School F FL #544/667 Nat'l #13,673/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Polk
NCES district ID
1201590
Math proficiency
39% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency
43% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income
$43,979
Composite
34.74/100
National rank
#5132
State rank
#62 of 73 in FL
C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Dundee

Score
65/100
State rank
#638
US rank
#12542

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Dundee, FL
County
Polk · 752,975 people
City population
5,431
Metro
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
Population (ZIP)
5,431
Household income
$44,514
Rent vs Own
34.6% rent · 65.4% own
Severe rent burden
11% of renters

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
752,975 people
By 2030
804,621 · +6.9%
By 2040
906,117 · +20.3%
By 2050
1,000,476 · +32.9%
By 2075
1,197,520 · +59.0%
By 2100
1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
Race & ethnicity
Hispanic / Latino 50% White 30% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 19% Dominican 6%
Common ancestry
Portuguese 1%
Foreign-born
18% · Canada, Guatemala
Languages at home
53% English-only · Spanish 47%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

2024 margin
Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
2008→2024 swing
-14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
All cycles
2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-3.8% since first listed
8 events — show timeline
  • 2026-06-19 Price Changed $253,990 Zillow
  • 2026-06-19 Price Changed $253,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-06-17 Price Changed $258,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-06-16 Price Changed $258,990 Zillow
  • 2026-06-16 Price Changed $268,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-06-15 Price Changed $268,990 Zillow
  • 2026-06-05 Listed $263,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-06-02 Listed $263,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…