3 Hillberry Cir

Holtsville, NY 11741

$545,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · Built 1966 · SingleFamily · Active · 745 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,680/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,858
• Tax + insurance: −$967
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$773
• Net cashflow: $-917/mo
• Annual: $-11,004/yr
• Cap rate: 4.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.21%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $152,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $545k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-917 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $383k (29.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $368k (32.5% below list).
• It's been on market 745 days — a 12% lower offer ($480k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $368k (32.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#414 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Sachem Central School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #86 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Nokomis School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 527 students, 31% FRL); Seneca Middle School (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B+, #136 of 729 statewide, top 20%, 973 students, 22% FRL); Sachem High School North (math 96% / reading 95%, grade A+, #76 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 1,923 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 97 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask is 9% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $545k implies a 553% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($144k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 745 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.