3 Hillberry Cir · Holtsville, NY 11741

$545,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 744 Days on market

Built 1966 0.25 ac lot $303/sqft · 39% below area Est $655k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Farm Ranch Style Home Features 3 Bedrooms, Full Bath, Formal Dining Room, Eat In Kitchen & 1 Car Garage. The information provided is estimated to the best of our abilities at this time.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Eat in kitchen
• 0.25 acre lot

Tags

• FARM RANCH STYLE HOME
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• EAT IN KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $545k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-917 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $383k (29.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $368k (32.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $368k (32.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.5% in Holtsville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#414 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Sachem Central School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #86 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Nokomis School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 527 students, 31% FRL); Seneca Middle School (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B+, #136 of 729 statewide, top 20%, 973 students, 22% FRL); Sachem High School North (math 96% / reading 95%, grade A+, #76 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 1,923 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 95 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($144k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 744 days — a 12% lower offer ($480k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask is 9% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $545k implies a 553% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $368,047 (32.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 744 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.21%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $654,822
• List price: $545,000
• Delta: -16.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24 Avenue A	0.17mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,570 (-13%)	2mo	$465,000	$296	64
22 Avenue D	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,800 (0%)	18mo	$615,000	$342	54
110 Geery Ave	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,800 (0%)	10mo	$750,000	$417	52
149 Avenue C	0.64mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,703 (-5%)	4mo	$610,000	$358	51
1663 Claas Ave	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,698 (-6%)	3mo	$735,000	$433	49
2 Alan St	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,852 (+3%)	6mo	$695,000	$375	49
10 Elan Ln	0.62mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,848 (+3%)	7mo	$745,000	$403	48
100 Lexington Ave	0.54mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,971 (+10%)	1mo	$735,000	$373	47
142 Pond Rd	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,718 (-5%)	14mo	$689,000	$401	40
142 Smith Ave	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,729 (-4%)	17mo	$610,000	$353	40
7 All Points Ter	0.70mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,967 (+9%)	16mo	$600,000	$305	32
132 Smith Ave	0.56mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,600 (-11%)	13mo	$580,000	$363	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-130,015
• Equity at exit: $81,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-113,547
• Equity at exit: $47,122

Cash invested: $152,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11741

• Rents YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,680 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,858
• Tax from tax record: −$739 /mo · $8,874/yr
• Insurance: −$227
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$773
• Net cashflow: $-917

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,841

Max offer price $383,005

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-609	-5% $-763	+0% $-917	+5% $-1,071	+10% $-1,226
Rent	-10% $-1,208	-5% $-1,062	+0% $-917	+5% $-772	+10% $-626
Rate	-1.0pp $-643	-0.5pp $-778	base $-917	+0.5pp $-1,058	+1.0pp $-1,202

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $136,250
• Closing costs: $16,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
132 Fairfield Dr Holbrook, NY	3.0	2.5	2200	$4,200	$1.91	26d	1	0.97mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $545,000 Active 744 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $545,000 Active 741 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $545,000 Active 740 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $545,000 Active 739 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $545,000 Active 738 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $545,000 Active 736 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $545,000 Active 735 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $545,000 Active 732 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $545,000 Active 731 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $545,000 Active 730 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $545,000 Active 727 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $545,000 Active 726 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $545,000 Active 725 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $545,000 Active 724 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $545,000 Active 723 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    price $545,000 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    This Farm Ranch Style Home Features 3 Bedrooms, Full Bath, Formal Dining Room, Eat In Kitchen & 1 Car Garage. The information provided is estimated to the best of our abilities at this time.

17. 2025-10-01
    status Active 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    This Farm Ranch Style Home Features 3 Bedrooms, Full Bath, Formal Dining Room, Eat In Kitchen & 1 Car Garage. The information provided is estimated to the best of our abilities at this time.

18. 2025-10-01
    historical 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    This Farm Ranch Style Home Features 3 Bedrooms, Full Bath, Formal Dining Room, Eat In Kitchen & 1 Car Garage. The information provided is estimated to the best of our abilities at this time.

19. 2024-10-07
    status Active 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    This Farm Ranch Style Home Features 3 Bedrooms, Full Bath, Formal Dining Room, Eat In Kitchen & 1 Car Garage. The information provided is estimated to the best of our abilities at this time.

20. 2024-09-30
    historical 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    This Farm Ranch Style Home Features 3 Bedrooms, Full Bath, Formal Dining Room, Eat In Kitchen & 1 Car Garage. The information provided is estimated to the best of our abilities at this time.

21. 2024-05-31
    listed $499,900 Active 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    This Farm Ranch Style Home Features 3 Bedrooms, Full Bath, Formal Dining Room, Eat In Kitchen & 1 Car Garage. The information provided is estimated to the best of our abilities at this time.

22. 2018-02-08
    historical
23. 2017-08-08
    price $210,000
24. 2017-08-08
    status Back On Market
25. 2016-10-04
    historical
26. 2016-07-07
    listed $199,000 New
27. 2015-12-11
    historical
28. 2015-01-08
    listed $175,000
29. 1989-10-05
    soldstatus $83,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,874 · $739/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,042 · $754/mo
• Expected delta: +$168/yr (+$14/mo · 1.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,166
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,528
• − Property taxes: −$8,874
• − Insurance: −$2,725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,533
• − Management: −$3,533
• − Depreciation: −$15,855
• Taxable loss: −$20,882
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,012
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,992/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sachem Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625350
• Math proficiency: 69% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $92,968
• Composite: 65.53/100
• National rank: #472
• State rank: #86 of 590 in NY

Livability — Holtsville

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #414
• US rank: #7194

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holtsville, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 13,194
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 26,667
• Household income: $144,346
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 416.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 6% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -682.71%
• Current HPI: 328.9231
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.30%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+552.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $545,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-01 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-07 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-30 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-31 Listed $499,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-08 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-08 Price Changed $210,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-08 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-04 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-07 Listed $199,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-11 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-08 Listed $175,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1989-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $83,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,874 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.