18042 Sargent Rd SW #1

Rochester, WA 98579

$179,900C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built 2026 · Manufactured · Pending · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,894/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax + insurance: −$300
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $253/mo
• Annual: $3,038/yr
• Cap rate: 7.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.03%
• DSCR: 1.27
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $50,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $253 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#327 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Rochester School District (rural): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #97 of 291 in WA (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Grand Mound Elementary (499 students, 66% FRL); Rochester Middle School (495 students, 61% FRL); Rochester High School (600 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.1% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.