18042 Sargent Rd SW #1 · Rochester, WA 98579

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 44 Days on market

Built 2026 ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand New, fresh, clean and ready for move in by the middle of April. 3 Bdrm/2 bath home in an open country setting. This home is in a tiny little privately operated park off of Sargent Road near Scatter creek. Only 6 units total will ever be here. This is a 55 and older park. All nicely kept homes, all good tenants. Across the driveway from an open space farm area with views to Mt. Rainier. This lot also borders a huge lawn area dedicated to the water system. Lots of space for a garden or lawn games. Porches are under construction. Space rent is $750 and this includes water/sewer/garbage. Just a few minutes to I-5 access at Exit 88. Quick commute to Olympia. Less than 15 minutes to the gam

Key facts

• Open country setting
• Views to mt rainier
• Huge lawn area

Tags

• OPEN COUNTRY SETTING
• PRIVATELY OPERATED PARK
• HUGE LAWN AREA
• VIEWS TO MT RAINIER
• SPACE FOR A GARDEN
• QUICK COMMUTE TO OLYMPIA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Mobile home remains
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash, Conventional
• HOA & community: Located in Garvs Mobile home park; 6 homes in the park; Land lease: $750/month; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: 2 uncovered open parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Community water; Property served by PSE power company; Electric water heater
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; South-facing; Manufactured by Cavco; Property condition: Very good; Has a view; Park approved for sale
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Block skirting; Manufactured after 06/15/1976
• Exterior features: Wood products exterior; Open space; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 three-quarter bath; 1 bathtub; 2 showers
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Water heater; Dining room; Living room; Kitchen with eating space; Utility room; Walk-in closet; Patio/Porch/Deck
• Laundry & utility: Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $253 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.1% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#327 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Rochester School District (rural): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #97 of 291 in WA (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Grand Mound Elementary (499 students, 66% FRL); Rochester Middle School (495 students, 61% FRL); Rochester High School (600 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,503 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.03%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $88,200
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18042 Sargent Rd SW #4	0.01mi	2/1.0 (-1)	910 (+8%)	13mo	$96,000	$105	66
7608 SW Scatter View Ln	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (0%)	15mo	$335,000	$399	48
18525 Sargent Rd SW	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	728 (-13%)	2mo	$385,000	$529	37
17340 Sargent Rd SW #35	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	784 (-7%)	14mo	$25,000	$32	36
17340 Sargent Rd SW #57	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (+10%)	12mo	$92,500	$100	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-13,000
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $9,556
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98579

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,894 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,698/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $253

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,574

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $377	-5% $315	+0% $253	+5% $191	+10% $129
Rent	-10% $103	-5% $178	+0% $253	+5% $328	+10% $403
Rate	-1.0pp $344	-0.5pp $299	base $253	+0.5pp $207	+1.0pp $159

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-28
   price $179,900
3. 2026-03-28
   listed $184,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,730
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$2,698
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,818
• − Management: −$1,818
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $184
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$44
• After-tax cash flow: $2,993/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester School District
• NCES district ID: 5307470
• Math proficiency: 53% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $56,231
• Composite: 49.33/100
• National rank: #4348
• State rank: #97 of 291 in WA

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #327
• US rank: #12271

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, WA
• Population (ZIP): 13,907

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -197.25%
• Current HPI: 381.8969
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-2.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $179,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-28 Listed $184,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $165 · +40.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.