Carson Plan

Hartland, MI 48353

$265,265D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 956 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,241/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,410
• Tax + insurance: −$448
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $-88/mo
• Annual: $-1,057/yr
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.40%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $75,290

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $265k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-88 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (15.5% below list).
• It's been on market 956 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $224k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hartland Consolidated Schools (suburban): math 52% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #41 of 540 in MI (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Creekside Elementary School (math 67% / reading 62%, grade B, #132 of 1,397 statewide, top 11%, 424 students, 20% FRL); Hartland Ms At Ore Creek (math 57% / reading 66%, grade B+, #47 of 493 statewide, top 10%, 766 students, 17% FRL); Hartland High School (math 47% / reading 69%, grade C, #92 of 713 statewide, top 13%, 1,738 students, 16% FRL).
• Market conditions: 132 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 488 units permitted in Livingston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Livingston County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.9% in Hartland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 956 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.