Carson Plan · Hartland, MI 48353

$265,265

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · SingleFamily · 956 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

TO-BE-BUILT CUSTOM HOMES ON YOUR LAND. HOMES ARE NOT PREBUILT. PRICING REFLECTS THE TO-BE-BUILT HOME ONLY, AND DOES NOT INCLUDE LAND OR LAND IMPROVEMENTS. We can build a custom home on your lot in most counties in Ohio and many counties in Pennsylvania, Michigan, West Virginia. We do not sell land, but please contact us if you are looking to acquire land for a custom home. The Carson has just what you need when you don't need a lot of square footage. And the flexible plan is a blank canvas, ready to customize for how you live. For instance, the third bedroom can be reconfigured to become a den. Move a wall, enlarge a window, add a fireplace … experiment with our interactive floor plan tool to explore some of the possibilities. By the way, the possibility of you loving this home is excellent.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 956 days

🏗️ New construction. The $265,265 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $268,894.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $265k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-88 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.9% in Hartland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hartland Consolidated Schools (suburban): math 52% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #41 of 540 in MI (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Creekside Elementary School (math 67% / reading 62%, grade B, #132 of 1,397 statewide, top 11%, 424 students, 20% FRL); Hartland Ms At Ore Creek (math 57% / reading 66%, grade B+, #47 of 493 statewide, top 10%, 766 students, 17% FRL); Hartland High School (math 47% / reading 69%, grade C, #92 of 713 statewide, top 13%, 1,738 students, 16% FRL).
• Market conditions: 132 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 488 units permitted in Livingston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 956 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $224,071 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 956 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.40%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $268,894
• List price: $265,265
• Delta: -1.35%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2045 Birch St	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,146 (+5%)	4mo	$272,000	$237	74
11556 Broadview St	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,037 (-5%)	22mo	$256,500	$247	69
11519 Norway Dr	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,072 (-2%)	22mo	$270,000	$252	66
1552 Odette	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-7%)	7mo	$260,000	$258	57
11405 Norway Dr	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-12%)	10mo	$252,000	$263	52
1560 Odette	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,233 (+13%)	7mo	$282,500	$229	48
1494 Maxfield Rd	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,038 (-5%)	19mo	$190,000	$183	44
11953 Maxfield Blvd	0.48mi	3/1.0	960 (-12%)	21mo	$255,000	$266	41
1605 Shoreline Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,036 (-5%)	22mo	$368,500	$356	35
1514 Maxfield Rd	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	930 (-14%)	23mo	$305,000	$328	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-49,149
• Equity at exit: $40,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-49,886
• Equity at exit: $23,249

Cash invested: $75,290 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48353

• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,241 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,410
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$336 /mo · $4,033/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $-88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,352

Max offer price $256,146

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $98	-5% $5	+0% $-88	+5% $-181	+10% $-274
Rent	-10% $-265	-5% $-177	+0% $-88	+5% $0	+10% $89
Rate	-1.0pp $47	-0.5pp $-20	base $-88	+0.5pp $-158	+1.0pp $-229

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,223
• Closing costs: $8,067
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $265,265 Active 956 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,265 Active 953 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,265 Active 952 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,265 Active 951 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,265 Active 950 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,265 Active 948 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,265 Active 947 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,265 Active 944 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,265 Active 943 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $265,265 Active 942 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $265,265 Active 939 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,265 Active 938 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,265 Active 937 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,265 Active 936 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,265 Active 935 DOM
16. 2026-05-02
    price $265,265 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    TO-BE-BUILT CUSTOM HOMES ON YOUR LAND. HOMES ARE NOT PREBUILT. PRICING REFLECTS THE TO-BE-BUILT HOME ONLY, AND DOES NOT INCLUDE LAND OR LAND IMPROVEMENTS. We can build a custom home on your lot in most counties in Ohio and many counties in Pennsylvania, Michigan, West Virginia. We do not sell land, but please contact us if you are looking to acquire land for a custom home. The Carson has just what you need when you don't need a lot of square footage. And the flexible plan is a blank canvas, ready to customize for how you live. For instance, the third bedroom can be reconfigured to become a den. Move a wall, enlarge a window, add a fireplace … experiment with our interactive floor plan tool to explore some of the possibilities. By the way, the possibility of you loving this home is excellent.

17. 2025-12-16
    price $262,950 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    TO-BE-BUILT CUSTOM HOMES ON YOUR LAND. HOMES ARE NOT PREBUILT. PRICING REFLECTS THE TO-BE-BUILT HOME ONLY, AND DOES NOT INCLUDE LAND OR LAND IMPROVEMENTS. We can build a custom home on your lot in most counties in Ohio and many counties in Pennsylvania, Michigan, West Virginia. We do not sell land, but please contact us if you are looking to acquire land for a custom home. The Carson has just what you need when you don't need a lot of square footage. And the flexible plan is a blank canvas, ready to customize for how you live. For instance, the third bedroom can be reconfigured to become a den. Move a wall, enlarge a window, add a fireplace … experiment with our interactive floor plan tool to explore some of the possibilities. By the way, the possibility of you loving this home is excellent.

18. 2025-03-26
    price $261,950 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    TO-BE-BUILT CUSTOM HOMES ON YOUR LAND. HOMES ARE NOT PREBUILT. PRICING REFLECTS THE TO-BE-BUILT HOME ONLY, AND DOES NOT INCLUDE LAND OR LAND IMPROVEMENTS. We can build a custom home on your lot in most counties in Ohio and many counties in Pennsylvania, Michigan, West Virginia. We do not sell land, but please contact us if you are looking to acquire land for a custom home. The Carson has just what you need when you don't need a lot of square footage. And the flexible plan is a blank canvas, ready to customize for how you live. For instance, the third bedroom can be reconfigured to become a den. Move a wall, enlarge a window, add a fireplace … experiment with our interactive floor plan tool to explore some of the possibilities. By the way, the possibility of you loving this home is excellent.

19. 2025-03-21
    price $261,200 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    TO-BE-BUILT CUSTOM HOMES ON YOUR LAND. HOMES ARE NOT PREBUILT. PRICING REFLECTS THE TO-BE-BUILT HOME ONLY, AND DOES NOT INCLUDE LAND OR LAND IMPROVEMENTS. We can build a custom home on your lot in most counties in Ohio and many counties in Pennsylvania, Michigan, West Virginia. We do not sell land, but please contact us if you are looking to acquire land for a custom home. The Carson has just what you need when you don't need a lot of square footage. And the flexible plan is a blank canvas, ready to customize for how you live. For instance, the third bedroom can be reconfigured to become a den. Move a wall, enlarge a window, add a fireplace … experiment with our interactive floor plan tool to explore some of the possibilities. By the way, the possibility of you loving this home is excellent.

20. 2025-03-18
    price $261,950 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    TO-BE-BUILT CUSTOM HOMES ON YOUR LAND. HOMES ARE NOT PREBUILT. PRICING REFLECTS THE TO-BE-BUILT HOME ONLY, AND DOES NOT INCLUDE LAND OR LAND IMPROVEMENTS. We can build a custom home on your lot in most counties in Ohio and many counties in Pennsylvania, Michigan, West Virginia. We do not sell land, but please contact us if you are looking to acquire land for a custom home. The Carson has just what you need when you don't need a lot of square footage. And the flexible plan is a blank canvas, ready to customize for how you live. For instance, the third bedroom can be reconfigured to become a den. Move a wall, enlarge a window, add a fireplace … experiment with our interactive floor plan tool to explore some of the possibilities. By the way, the possibility of you loving this home is excellent.

21. 2024-11-02
    price $261,200 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    TO-BE-BUILT CUSTOM HOMES ON YOUR LAND. HOMES ARE NOT PREBUILT. PRICING REFLECTS THE TO-BE-BUILT HOME ONLY, AND DOES NOT INCLUDE LAND OR LAND IMPROVEMENTS. We can build a custom home on your lot in most counties in Ohio and many counties in Pennsylvania, Michigan, West Virginia. We do not sell land, but please contact us if you are looking to acquire land for a custom home. The Carson has just what you need when you don't need a lot of square footage. And the flexible plan is a blank canvas, ready to customize for how you live. For instance, the third bedroom can be reconfigured to become a den. Move a wall, enlarge a window, add a fireplace … experiment with our interactive floor plan tool to explore some of the possibilities. By the way, the possibility of you loving this home is excellent.

22. 2024-08-14
    price $258,700 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    TO-BE-BUILT CUSTOM HOMES ON YOUR LAND. HOMES ARE NOT PREBUILT. PRICING REFLECTS THE TO-BE-BUILT HOME ONLY, AND DOES NOT INCLUDE LAND OR LAND IMPROVEMENTS. We can build a custom home on your lot in most counties in Ohio and many counties in Pennsylvania, Michigan, West Virginia. We do not sell land, but please contact us if you are looking to acquire land for a custom home. The Carson has just what you need when you don't need a lot of square footage. And the flexible plan is a blank canvas, ready to customize for how you live. For instance, the third bedroom can be reconfigured to become a den. Move a wall, enlarge a window, add a fireplace … experiment with our interactive floor plan tool to explore some of the possibilities. By the way, the possibility of you loving this home is excellent.

23. 2023-11-08
    listed $257,700 Active 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    TO-BE-BUILT CUSTOM HOMES ON YOUR LAND. HOMES ARE NOT PREBUILT. PRICING REFLECTS THE TO-BE-BUILT HOME ONLY, AND DOES NOT INCLUDE LAND OR LAND IMPROVEMENTS. We can build a custom home on your lot in most counties in Ohio and many counties in Pennsylvania, Michigan, West Virginia. We do not sell land, but please contact us if you are looking to acquire land for a custom home. The Carson has just what you need when you don't need a lot of square footage. And the flexible plan is a blank canvas, ready to customize for how you live. For instance, the third bedroom can be reconfigured to become a den. Move a wall, enlarge a window, add a fireplace … experiment with our interactive floor plan tool to explore some of the possibilities. By the way, the possibility of you loving this home is excellent.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,889
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,062
• − Property taxes: −$4,033
• − Insurance: −$1,344
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,151
• − Management: −$2,151
• − Depreciation: −$7,822
• Taxable loss: −$5,676
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,362
• After-tax cash flow: $305/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

The Carson plan home is in excellent condition with no visible damage or wear. It has a good exterior and interior condition, and the landscaping is well-maintained. The home is move-in ready and has a good resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior siding and roof — Painting the exterior siding and roof can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value.
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Landscaping improvements can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value.
• Rental Interior updates — Interior updates can make the home more appealing to renters and increase its rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the exterior siding and roof — Painting the exterior siding and roof can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Landscaping improvements can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value. ↑
• Rental Interior updates — Interior updates can make the home more appealing to renters and increase its rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hartland Consolidated Schools
• NCES district ID: 2617910
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $85,269
• Composite: 51.93/100
• National rank: #1647
• State rank: #41 of 540 in MI

Livability — Hartland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Livingston County · 121,626 people
• City population: 7,014
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 7,014
• Household income: $105,964
• Rent vs Own: 3.7% rent · 96.3% own

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,920 people
• By 2030: 209,173 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 216,878 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 217,485 · +7.2%
• By 2075: 217,590 · +7.2%
• By 2100: 197,095 · -2.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Italian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.9) · D 37.4% · R 61.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -23.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.9 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+29.6 2012: R+23.3 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -215.14%
• Current HPI: 208.579
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+2.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $265,265 Zillow
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $262,950 Zillow
• 2025-03-26 Price Changed $261,950 Zillow
• 2025-03-21 Price Changed $261,200 Zillow
• 2025-03-18 Price Changed $261,950 Zillow
• 2024-11-02 Price Changed $261,200 Zillow
• 2024-08-14 Price Changed $258,700 Zillow
• 2023-11-08 Listed $257,700 Zillow