2849 Lillian Ln

Douglasville, GA 30135

$289,990F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,740 sqft · Built 2026 · Townhouse · Active · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,003/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,675
• Tax + insurance: −$532
• HOA: −$50
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $-675/mo
• Annual: $-8,102/yr
• Cap rate: 3.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.06%
• DSCR: 0.60
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $89,452

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-675 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (23.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (30.9% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $200k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#82 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime F, amenities F.
• Douglas County (suburban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #92 of 174 in GA (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Factory Shoals Elementary School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #810 of 1,228 statewide, top 69%, 605 students, 85% FRL); Chestnut Log Middle School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #333 of 470 statewide, top 72%, 726 students, 78% FRL); New Manchester High School (math 10% / reading 28%, grade F, #250 of 424 statewide, top 60%, 1,894 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 53% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 773 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 595 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Douglas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.