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2849 Lillian Ln 🏗️ New Construction
F Composite 26.48
Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +7.5/15.0
  • Cash flow +5.5/30.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Livability +3.6/5.0
  • Rent growth +2.5/5.0
  • Schools +2.1/10.0
  • 1% rule +1.3/10.0
  • DSCR +0.0/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$289,990

2849 Lillian Ln · Douglasville, GA 30135
3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,740 sqft · Townhouse · 18 Days on market
Built 2026 Good condition 2,439 sqft lot 1-car garage $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The Hanson floor plan by Stephen Elliott Homes delivers a refined blend of modern luxury and thoughtful design in one of Douglasville's most desirable new communities. From the inviting front porch to the beautifully stained stairwells, every detail sets an elevated tone. Rich LVT flooring flows throughout the main level, creating a seamless and sophisticated backdrop for everyday living. The open concept family room offers an elegant space for relaxation and entertaining. The designer kitchen features **stainless steel appliances**, **soft close cabinetry**, **recessed lighting**, and a **large island** that anchors the space with both style and functionality. LVP flooring continues through the kitchen, hallway, and pantry for a cohesive, upscale finish. A pedestal sink enhances the main level powder room, and a ceiling fan adds comfort in the family room. Upstairs, the owner's suite serves as a serene retreat with an oversized bedroom ideal for unwinding. The spa inspired primary bath includes **cultured marble countertops**, a **large walk in closet**, and a **generous shower**. Two additional bedrooms and a well appointed guest bath with a **double vanity** complete the upper level. Dual thermostats on each floor provide year round comfort and efficiency. Outdoor living is equally inviting with a private rear porch perfect for morning coffee, evening relaxation, or intimate gatherings. Located minutes from Douglasville's vibrant downtown, residents enjoy convenient access to parks, trails, the local library, and a variety of dining options. This home also includes an exceptional incentive package with the use of the Seller's Preferred Lender: enjoy NO HOA DUES FOR 1 YEAR, $7,500 in Closing Costs, and an included Level 1 Top Load Washer & Dryer package.

Key facts

  • Soft close cabinetry
  • Large island
  • Recessed lighting

Tags

STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCESSOFT CLOSE CABINETRYRECESSED LIGHTINGLARGE ISLANDCULTURED MARBLE COUNTERTOPSLARGE WALK IN CLOSET

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
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🏗️ New construction. The $289,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $319,472.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-675 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (23.5% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (30.9% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $200k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 71/100 on livability (#82 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime F, amenities F.
  • Douglas County (suburban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #92 of 174 in GA (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
  • Zoned schools: Factory Shoals Elementary School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #810 of 1,228 statewide, top 69%, 605 students, 85% FRL); Chestnut Log Middle School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #333 of 470 statewide, top 72%, 726 students, 78% FRL); New Manchester High School (math 10% / reading 28%, grade F, #250 of 424 statewide, top 60%, 1,894 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 53% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Market conditions: Rents flat; 773 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 595 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Douglas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $200,329 (30.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
  5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.63%
Cap rate
3.76%
Cash-on-cash
-9.06%
DSCR
0.60
GRM
13.3

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$319,472
List price
$289,990
Delta
-9.23%
Verdict
FAIR
Comps
13 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
3744 Skylar Dr 0.64mi 3/2.5 1,857 (+7%) 2mo $319,990 $172 57
3748 Skylar Dr 0.64mi 3/2.5 1,857 (+7%) 2mo $329,990 $178 57
3732 Skylar Dr 0.63mi 3/2.5 1,877 (+8%) 2mo $322,990 $172 56
3740 Skylar Dr 0.63mi 3/2.5 1,877 (+8%) 3mo $326,990 $174 55
2334 Carlton Pkwy 0.61mi 4/2.5 (+1) 1,877 (+8%) 3mo $336,490 $179 51
3752 Skylar Dr 0.64mi 4/2.5 (+1) 1,877 (+8%) 2mo $334,490 $178 50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-35.7%
Equity multiple
-0.12×
Total profit
$-100,430
Equity at exit
$47,634
10-year hold
IRR
-71.4%
Equity multiple
-0.84×
Total profit
$-164,715
Equity at exit
$27,622

Cash invested: $89,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Georgia
90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
11 active · 9 under contract
Months of supply
9.4 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$326,990 ($176/sqft)
Median days on market
108 d
This list price
9% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+4.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 30135

Rents YoY
0.1%
Active inventory
773
Price-to-rent
12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,003 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,675
Tax est. 1.5%
$399 /mo · $4,792/yr
Insurance
$133
HOA
$50
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$421
Net cashflow
$-675

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,858
Max offer price $221,769
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-454 -5% $-565 +0% $-675 +5% $-786 +10% $-896
Rent -10% $-833 -5% $-754 +0% $-675 +5% $-596 +10% $-517
Rate -1.0pp $-514 -0.5pp $-594 base $-675 +0.5pp $-758 +1.0pp $-842

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$79,868
Closing costs
$9,584
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 19 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
3310 S Whisper Dr Douglasville, GA 3.0 2.0 2208 $1,745 $0.79 26d 1 0.28mi
2836 Bomar Rd Douglasville, GA 4.0 1.5 1675 $1,536 $0.92 93d 1 0.29mi
3385 Newberry Ln Douglasville, GA 3.0 2.0 1697 $2,049 $1.21 54d 1 0.59mi
3153 Pritchards Trce Douglasville, GA 3.0 2.0 1560 $1,998 $1.28 48d 1 0.66mi
2800 Foxfield Pkwy Douglasville, GA 1.0–3.0 1.0–3.0 1067 $2,751 $2.58 9d 21 0.69mi
2301 Carlton Pkwy Douglasville, GA 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 1050 $2,330 $2.22 3d 14 0.73mi
3030 Pritchards Mill Trl Douglasville, GA 3.0 2.0 1732 $1,845 $1.07 21d 1 0.85mi
3165 Laura Ln Douglasville, GA 3.0 2.5 1818 $1,750 $0.96 4d 1 0.89mi
5005 Amethyst Dr Douglasville, GA 4.0 2.5 2159 $2,250 $1.04 23d 1 0.91mi
2378 Iron Horse Dr Douglasville, GA 3.0 2.0 1160 $1,599 $1.38 2d 1 0.92mi
5013 Amethyst Dr Douglasville, GA 4.0 2.5 1729 $2,275 $1.32 93d 1 0.94mi
3715 Longview Dr Douglasville, GA 3.0 2.0 1704 $1,819 $1.07 73d 1 1.00mi
3172 Carmel Dr Douglasville, GA 4.0 2.0 1634 $1,795 $1.10 34d 1 1.03mi
2196 Stenger Rd Douglasville, GA 4.0 2.5 1900 $2,200 $1.16 67d 1 1.07mi
3237 Carmel Dr Douglasville, GA 3.0 2.0 2130 $1,855 $0.87 0d 1 1.16mi
3685 N Melissa Ln Douglasville, GA 4.0 2.0 1727 $2,035 $1.18 26d 1 1.25mi
3715 Meadowview Dr Lithia Springs, GA 4.0 2.0 1400 $1,835 $1.31 4d 1 1.42mi
3196 Wallace Lake Rd Douglasville, GA 3.0 3.0 1776 $1,760 $0.99 73d 1 1.42mi
3175 Wallace Lake Rd Douglasville, GA 3.0 1.0 1500 $1,900 $1.27 93d 1 1.45mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Located on a paved county road
HOA & community
Annual association fee of $600Community includes multiple units (37 total in community; 24 units to be built)

Exterior

Parking
1-car garageGarage with opener and faces front
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewer110-volt electric
Home design
Two-level homeNew constructionFee simple ownership
Construction
Brick, frame, and HardiPlank-type sidingComposition/shingle roofSlab foundationBuilt by Stephen Elliot Homes
Exterior features
Private entrancePatio

Interior

Kitchen
White cabinetsKitchen islandPantryStone countertopsOpen view to family roomDishwasherDisposalElectric cooktopMicrowave
Bedrooms
Three upper-level bedrooms
Flooring
Carpet
Bathrooms
Two full bathroomsOne half bath (main level)Master bath with double vanity and shower
Heating & cooling
Electric heatingCentral airCeiling fans
Interior features
Disappearing attic stairsDouble vanityElevator9 ft+ high ceilings on upper levelWalk-in closets2+ common walls
Laundry & utility
Laundry on upper level

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-08-08
    days on market $289,990 Active 18 DOM
  2. 2026-08-06
    days on market $289,990 Active 16 DOM
  3. 2026-08-05
    days on market $289,990 Active 15 DOM
  4. 2026-08-04
    days on market $289,990 Active 14 DOM
  5. 2026-08-03
    days on market $289,990 Active 13 DOM
  6. 2026-07-31
    days on market $289,990 Active 10 DOM
  7. 2026-07-30
    days on market $289,990 Active 8 DOM
  8. 2026-07-28
    days on market $289,990 Active 7 DOM
  9. 2026-07-26
    days on market $289,990 Active 5 DOM
  10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $289,990 Active 3 DOM
  11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $289,990 Active 2 DOM
  12. 2026-07-21
    days on marketlisting id $289,990 Active 1 DOM
    Show marketing remark (1790 chars)

    The Hanson floor plan by Stephen Elliott Homes delivers a refined blend of modern luxury and thoughtful design in one of Douglasville's most desirable new communities. From the inviting front porch to the beautifully stained stairwells, every detail sets an elevated tone. Rich LVT flooring flows throughout the main level, creating a seamless and sophisticated backdrop for everyday living. The open concept family room offers an elegant space for relaxation and entertaining. The designer kitchen features **stainless steel appliances**, **soft close cabinetry**, **recessed lighting**, and a **large island** that anchors the space with both style and functionality. LVP flooring continues through the kitchen, hallway, and pantry for a cohesive, upscale finish. A pedestal sink enhances the main level powder room, and a ceiling fan adds comfort in the family room. Upstairs, the owner's suite serves as a serene retreat with an oversized bedroom ideal for unwinding. The spa inspired primary bath includes **cultured marble countertops**, a **large walk in closet**, and a **generous shower**. Two additional bedrooms and a well appointed guest bath with a **double vanity** complete the upper level. Dual thermostats on each floor provide year round comfort and efficiency. Outdoor living is equally inviting with a private rear porch perfect for morning coffee, evening relaxation, or intimate gatherings. Located minutes from Douglasville's vibrant downtown, residents enjoy convenient access to parks, trails, the local library, and a variety of dining options. This home also includes an exceptional incentive package with the use of the Seller's Preferred Lender: enjoy NO HOA DUES FOR 1 YEAR, $7,500 in Closing Costs, and an included Level 1 Top Load Washer & Dryer package.

  13. 2026-07-20
    days on market $289,990 Active 125 DOM
  14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $289,990 Active 123 DOM
  15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $289,990 Active 122 DOM
  16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $289,990 Active 121 DOM
  17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $289,990 Active 120 DOM
  18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $289,990 Active 119 DOM
  19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $289,990 Active 118 DOM
  20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $289,990 Active 117 DOM
  21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $289,990 Active 116 DOM
  22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $289,990 Active 115 DOM
  23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $289,990 Active 114 DOM
  24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $289,990 Active 112 DOM
  25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $289,990 Active 111 DOM
  26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $289,990 Active 110 DOM
  27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $289,990 Active 109 DOM
  28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $289,990 Active 108 DOM
  29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $289,990 Active 107 DOM
  30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $289,990 Active 106 DOM
  31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $289,990 Active 105 DOM
  32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $289,990 Active 104 DOM
  33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $289,990 Active 103 DOM
  34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $289,990 Active 102 DOM
  35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $289,990 Active 101 DOM
  36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $289,990 Active 99 DOM
  37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $289,990 Active 97 DOM
  38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $289,990 Active 96 DOM
  39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $289,990 Active 93 DOM
  40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $289,990 Active 92 DOM
  41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $289,990 Active 91 DOM
  42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $289,990 Active 90 DOM
  43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $289,990 Active 88 DOM
  44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $289,990 Active 84 DOM
  45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $289,990 Active 83 DOM
  46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $289,990 Active 82 DOM
  47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $289,990 Active 79 DOM
  48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,990 Active 78 DOM
  49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,990 Active 77 DOM
  50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,990 Active 76 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
  • 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$24,039
− Mortgage interest
−$17,895
− Property taxes
−$4,792
− Insurance
−$1,597
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,923
− Management
−$1,923
− HOA
−$600
− Depreciation
−$9,294
Taxable loss
−$13,985
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$3,357
After-tax cash flow
$-4,746/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained townhome in Douglasville offers a good condition with modern finishes and a prime location. It is ready for immediate occupancy and can be further enhanced with minor updates to boost its value.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
  • Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value
  • Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters
  • Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers
F Composite school gradezoned avg 21/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Factory Shoals Elementary School F GA #810/1,228 Nat'l #32,000/41,679 Middle Chestnut Log Middle School F GA #333/470 Nat'l #11,208/14,009 High New Manchester High School F GA #250/424 Nat'l #14,670/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Douglas County
NCES district ID
1301860
Math proficiency
23% ▼ -16.00%
Reading proficiency
35% ▼ -11.00%
Median HH income
$55,335
Composite
25.84/100
National rank
#7353
State rank
#92 of 174 in GA
B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Douglasville

Score
71/100
State rank
#82
US rank
#6971

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County
Douglas County · 163,022 people
City population
114,380
Metro
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
Population (ZIP)
66,800
Household income
$94,526
Rent vs Own
21.9% rent · 78.1% own
Severe rent burden
7% of renters

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
163,022 people
By 2030
173,956 · +6.7%
By 2040
196,859 · +20.8%
By 2050
220,017 · +35.0%
By 2075
279,831 · +71.7%
By 2100
322,702 · +97.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
Race & ethnicity
Black 49% White 35% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
Common ancestry
Hispanic 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
Foreign-born
10% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
Languages at home
88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

2024 margin
Solid D (+31.4) · D 65.4% · R 33.9%
2008→2024 swing
+29.6pp toward D · 2008: 1.8pp · 2024: 31.4pp
All cycles
2024: D+31.4 2020: D+25.1 2016: D+10.8 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+1.8

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

+0.0% since first listed
4 events — show timeline
  • 2026-07-21 Listed $289,990 GAMLS
  • 2026-07-21 Listed $289,990 FMLS
  • 2026-07-20 Listing Removed GAMLS
  • 2026-03-17 Listed $289,990 GAMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…