19179 Esterbrook Rd

Ponchatoula, LA 70454

$210,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Active · 269 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,911/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$475
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $-66/mo
• Annual: $-797/yr
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.20%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $58,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-66 ($-797/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (9.0% below list).
• It's been on market 269 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#91 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Tangipahoa Parish (rural): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #63 of 98 in LA (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Tucker Memorial Elementary School (709 students, 67% FRL); Ponchatoula Junior High School (math 18% / reading 37%, grade F, #127 of 218 statewide, top 60%, 770 students, 60% FRL); Ponchatoula High School (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #106 of 265 statewide, top 43%, 2,262 students, 51% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 527 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,085 units permitted in Tangipahoa Parish in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tangipahoa County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 5.2% in Ponchatoula — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 269 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?