27180 Montonna Shores Rd N

Three Mile Bay, NY 13693

$179,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · Built 2008 · SingleFamily · Active · 76 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $797/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax + insurance: −$231
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$167
• Net cashflow: $-540/mo
• Annual: $-6,479/yr
• Cap rate: 2.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.93%
• DSCR: 0.42
• 1% rule: 0.45%
• Cash to close: $50,120

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-540 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $84k (53.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $80k (55.5% below list).
• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $80k (55.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,088 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A, cost of living B+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, crime F.
• Lyme Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #408 of 755 in NY (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 11 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.