27180 Montonna Shores Rd N · Three Mile Bay, NY 13693

$179,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 2008 0.46 ac lot $311/sqft · 38% below area Est $286k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Cash flow +3.5/30.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this home that can be an Airbnb (currently is) or your own home away from home, that also offers water rights. Its a furnished awesome 2 bedroom that also has an open porch/deck are and a Pergola with a Hot tub! The Airbnb makes money but feel free to use for yourself as well! Your choice! This won't last in todays market!

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• Built 2008
• Listed 75 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-540 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $84k (53.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $80k (55.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $80k (55.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,088 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A, cost of living B+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, crime F.
• Lyme Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #408 of 755 in NY (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $79,688 (55.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.45% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.93%
• DSCR: 0.42
• GRM: 18.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $286,406
• List price: $179,000
• Delta: -37.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $63,070
• Equity at exit: $161,257

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.24×
• Total profit: $212,714
• Equity at exit: $347,758

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13693

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 18.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $797 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$156 /mo · $1,874/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$167
• Net cashflow: $-540

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,480

Max offer price $83,618

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-439	-5% $-489	+0% $-540	+5% $-591	+10% $-641
Rent	-10% $-603	-5% $-571	+0% $-540	+5% $-508	+10% $-477
Rate	-1.0pp $-450	-0.5pp $-494	base $-540	+0.5pp $-586	+1.0pp $-634

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $179,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $179,000 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $179,000 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $179,000 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 56 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 55 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 54 DOM
18. 2026-04-07
    listed $179,000 Active 335-char remark

    Show marketing remark (335 chars)

    Welcome to this home that can be an Airbnb (currently is) or your own home away from home, that also offers water rights. Its a furnished awesome 2 bedroom that also has an open porch/deck are and a Pergola with a Hot tub! The Airbnb makes money but feel free to use for yourself as well! Your choice! This won't last in todays market!

19. 2026-04-06
    historical
20. 2025-08-19
    price $189,000
21. 2025-06-13
    price $199,000
22. 2025-04-17
    listed $209,000 Active
23. 2023-11-16
    soldstatus $189,900
24. 2023-11-07
    soldstatus $189,900 Closed Sale or Rented
25. 2023-08-10
    status Pending Sale
26. 2023-07-31
    price $189,900
27. 2023-06-20
    listed $198,900 Active
28. 2019-10-31
    historical
29. 2019-05-02
    listed $85,000
30. 2018-11-30
    historical
31. 2018-04-24
    listed $74,900
32. 2017-11-30
    historical
33. 2017-07-13
    listed $74,900
34. 2017-07-12
    historical
35. 2017-04-17
    listed $74,900
36. 2016-11-01
    historical
37. 2016-05-16
    listed $74,000
38. 2015-10-31
    historical
39. 2015-07-12
    listed $75,000
40. 2015-06-25
    historical
41. 2015-03-27
    listed $75,000
42. 2014-12-31
    historical
43. 2013-06-23
    listed $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,874 · $156/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,450 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: +$575/yr (+$48/mo · 30.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,563
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$1,874
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$765
• − Management: −$765
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$9,971
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,393
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,086/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lyme Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3617880
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $50,713
• Composite: 46.85/100
• National rank: #5197
• State rank: #408 of 755 in NY

Livability — Three Mile Bay

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1088
• US rank: #22017

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment C Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 315

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.76%
• Current HPI: 464.1711
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+138.7% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Listed $179,000 CNYIS
• 2026-04-06 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $189,000 CNYIS
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $199,000 CNYIS
• 2025-04-17 Listed $209,000 CNYIS
• 2023-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $189,900 Public Records
• 2023-11-07 Sold (MLS) $189,900 CNYIS
• 2023-08-10 Pending — CNYIS
• 2023-07-31 Price Changed $189,900 CNYIS
• 2023-06-20 Listed $198,900 CNYIS
• 2019-10-31 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2019-05-02 Listed $85,000 CNYIS
• 2018-11-30 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2018-04-24 Listed $74,900 CNYIS
• 2017-11-30 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2017-07-13 Listed $74,900 CNYIS
• 2017-07-12 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2017-04-17 Listed $74,900 CNYIS
• 2016-11-01 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2016-05-16 Listed $74,000 CNYIS
• 2015-10-31 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2015-07-12 Listed $75,000 CNYIS
• 2015-06-25 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2015-03-27 Listed $75,000 CNYIS
• 2014-12-31 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2013-06-23 Listed $75,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,874 · +24.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.