1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
732 sqft ·
Built 1968
· Condo
· Active
· 121 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,704/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$656
Tax + insurance
−$635
HOA
−$641
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$358
Net cashflow
$-586/mo
Annual
$-7,027/yr
Cap rate
4.77%
Cash-on-cash
-5.45%
DSCR
0.76
1% rule
1.36%
Cash to close
$35,000
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $125k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-586 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $40k (67.8% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $40k (67.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 82/100 on livability (#77 in FL, #1,260 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities D, employment D-.
Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Azalea Elementary School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 507 students, 60% FRL); Azalea Middle School (math 26% / reading 27%, grade F, #503 of 571 statewide, top 88%, 678 students, 74% FRL); Boca Ciega High School (math 24% / reading 33%, grade F, #458 of 667 statewide, top 69%, 1,423 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 48% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pinellas average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 38% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 580 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 100d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 92% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 1.1% in South Pasadena — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 68% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
CashFlowRE · CFR-0ATNHR7H378M3K
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29