9 Fallen Leaf Way

Novato, CA 94949

$419,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1976 · Manufactured · Pending · 132 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,642/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,197
• Tax + insurance: −$698
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$765
• Net cashflow: $-18/mo
• Annual: $-218/yr
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.19%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $117,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $419k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18 ($-218/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $416k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $364k (13.1% below list).
• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $364k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#211 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Novato Unified (suburban): math 38% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #160 of 517 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hamilton Meadow Park (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 531 students, 58% FRL); Novato High (math 31% / reading 63%, grade D-, #389 of 1,170 statewide, top 35%, 1,458 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 30% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 75 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 149 units permitted in Marin County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marin County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $350k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.4% in Novato — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($121k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.