309 Lake Texoma Dr

Wylie, TX 75098

$300,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,480 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Pending · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,281/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$392
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $-163/mo
• Annual: $-1,954/yr
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.33%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-163 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (9.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (24.0% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $228k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#419 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Wylie ISD (suburban): math 64% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #28 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: R F Hartman El (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 541 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 26% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 700 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.0% in Wylie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.