309 Lake Texoma Dr · Wylie, TX 75098

$300,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,480 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2002 7,841 sqft lot Est $312k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful meticulously maintained home in Wylie ISD! As you enter this welcoming home the entry leads into the family room, dining room, and kitchen. The family room features a wood-burning fireplace and looks into the spacious backyard with a shed. The master bathroom features dual sinks, a separate shower, and a jetted tub. The kitchen boasts an island and opens to the dining and breakfast area that offers views of the front yard. Enjoy entertaining your guests in the nice back yard. New roof and windows in April 2016!

Key facts

• Storage shed
• Ample cabinet space
• Oversized backyard

Tags

• UPDATED GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• OVERSIZED BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowner association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener and garage facing front; Covered parking for 2 vehicles; Driveway; 2-car single door; No carport spaces
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Concrete curbs and sidewalks
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story; Built in 2002
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Large backyard with grass; Patio; Gutters; Storage; Wood fencing; Interior lot, landscaped

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen with granite countertops; Water line to refrigerator; Gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level); Primary bedroom with ensuite bath, garden tub, separate shower, dual sinks, and walk-in closet; Split bedroom layout
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Decorative lighting; Eat-in kitchen; Granite counters; High-speed internet available; Walk-in closet(s); Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Utility room with full-size washer/dryer area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-163 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (9.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (24.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.0% in Wylie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#419 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Wylie ISD (suburban): math 64% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #28 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: R F Hartman El (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 541 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 26% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 700 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,085 (24.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.33%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $312,280
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
314 Lake Texoma Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,326 (-10%)	3mo	$315,000	$238	78
220 Lake Texoma Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,261 (-15%)	1mo	$275,000	$218	66
407 Stoneybrook Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,503 (+2%)	4mo	$290,000	$193	61
307 Memorial Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,437 (-3%)	6mo	$278,000	$193	57
416 Dogwood Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+5%)	4mo	$310,000	$199	56
1306 Angel Fire Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,701 (+15%)	7mo	$360,000	$212	53
1305 Taos Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,634 (+10%)	14mo	$320,000	$196	53
327 S 4th St	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-5%)	3mo	$200,000	$142	51
205 Stone Cir	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,353 (-9%)	1mo	$285,000	$211	50
401 Willow Way	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-9%)	6mo	$309,000	$230	47
1014 S Ballard Ave	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,367 (-8%)	8mo	$284,995	$208	46
406 Briarwood Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,603 (+8%)	16mo	$355,000	$221	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-65,703
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-96,534
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75098

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 700
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,281 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$267 /mo · $3,198/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $-163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,487

Max offer price $271,228

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $7	-5% $-78	+0% $-163	+5% $-248	+10% $-333
Rent	-10% $-343	-5% $-253	+0% $-163	+5% $-73	+10% $17
Rate	-1.0pp $-12	-0.5pp $-87	base $-163	+0.5pp $-241	+1.0pp $-320

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $300,000 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-05-19
   listed $300,000 Active
3. 2020-02-19
   soldstatus
4. 2020-02-18
   soldstatus Sold 526-char remark

   Show marketing remark (526 chars)

   Beautiful meticulously maintained home in Wylie ISD! As you enter this welcoming home the entry leads into the family room, dining room, and kitchen. The family room features a wood-burning fireplace and looks into the spacious backyard with a shed. The master bathroom features dual sinks, a separate shower, and a jetted tub. The kitchen boasts an island and opens to the dining and breakfast area that offers views of the front yard. Enjoy entertaining your guests in the nice back yard. New roof and windows in April 2016!

5. 2020-01-17
   status Pending 526-char remark

   Show marketing remark (526 chars)

   Beautiful meticulously maintained home in Wylie ISD! As you enter this welcoming home the entry leads into the family room, dining room, and kitchen. The family room features a wood-burning fireplace and looks into the spacious backyard with a shed. The master bathroom features dual sinks, a separate shower, and a jetted tub. The kitchen boasts an island and opens to the dining and breakfast area that offers views of the front yard. Enjoy entertaining your guests in the nice back yard. New roof and windows in April 2016!

6. 2020-01-10
   historical Active Option Contract 526-char remark

   Show marketing remark (526 chars)

   Beautiful meticulously maintained home in Wylie ISD! As you enter this welcoming home the entry leads into the family room, dining room, and kitchen. The family room features a wood-burning fireplace and looks into the spacious backyard with a shed. The master bathroom features dual sinks, a separate shower, and a jetted tub. The kitchen boasts an island and opens to the dining and breakfast area that offers views of the front yard. Enjoy entertaining your guests in the nice back yard. New roof and windows in April 2016!

7. 2019-12-11
   listed $224,900 Active 526-char remark

   Show marketing remark (526 chars)

   Beautiful meticulously maintained home in Wylie ISD! As you enter this welcoming home the entry leads into the family room, dining room, and kitchen. The family room features a wood-burning fireplace and looks into the spacious backyard with a shed. The master bathroom features dual sinks, a separate shower, and a jetted tub. The kitchen boasts an island and opens to the dining and breakfast area that offers views of the front yard. Enjoy entertaining your guests in the nice back yard. New roof and windows in April 2016!

8. 2007-09-05
   soldstatus
9. 2007-08-31
   soldstatus 339-char remark

   Show marketing remark (339 chars)

   This wonderful home is move in ready. Located in Twin Lakes subdivision, this home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. The kitchen is situated with a view of the family room for that cook that doesnt want to be far from family and friends. A large backyard and oversized patio which is great for entertaining for those special days. A must see.

10. 2007-07-26
    historical 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    This wonderful home is move in ready. Located in Twin Lakes subdivision, this home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. The kitchen is situated with a view of the family room for that cook that doesnt want to be far from family and friends. A large backyard and oversized patio which is great for entertaining for those special days. A must see.

11. 2007-07-21
    listed $134,500 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    This wonderful home is move in ready. Located in Twin Lakes subdivision, this home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. The kitchen is situated with a view of the family room for that cook that doesnt want to be far from family and friends. A large backyard and oversized patio which is great for entertaining for those special days. A must see.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,198 · $267/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,490 · $458/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,292/yr (+$191/mo · 71.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,370
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$3,198
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,190
• − Management: −$2,190
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$7,239
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,737
• After-tax cash flow: $-217/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wylie ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846530
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $84,145
• Composite: 57.25/100
• National rank: #1091
• State rank: #28 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wylie

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #419
• US rank: #8623

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wylie, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 69,325
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,325
• Household income: $122,089
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 996.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 15% Black 13% Asian 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 4% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.91%
• Current HPI: 261.9973
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.39%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+123.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $300,000 NTREIS
• 2020-02-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-02-18 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2020-01-17 Pending — NTREIS
• 2020-01-10 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2019-12-11 Listed $224,900 NTREIS
• 2007-09-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-08-31 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2007-07-26 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2007-07-21 Listed $134,500 NTREIS

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,198 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.