813 Prospect Ave

New Cassel, NY 11590

$589,000C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,292 sqft · Built 1918 · MultiFamily · Pending · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,148/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,089
• Tax + insurance: −$1,050
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,291
• Net cashflow: $718/mo
• Annual: $8,612/yr
• Cap rate: 7.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.22%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $164,920

Investor read

• This is a 1×1bd/1.0ba + 1×2bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $589k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $718 ($9k/yr) — positive. Per door: $359/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $589k).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($571k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $571k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#311 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, schools D-, cost of living F.
• Westbury Union Free School District (suburban): math 28% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #531 of 590 in NY (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1918 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $77k; list at $589k implies a 664% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 54% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.4% in New Cassel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,148/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($153k/yr) (locally 730% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1918 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.