813 Prospect Ave · New Cassel, NY 11590

$589,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,292 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1918 6,525 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Duplex featuring a 1bdrm unit, and a 2bdrm unit for sale, gas heat, full basement w/ bilco doors, private parking driveway in back, close to all

Key facts

• Gas heat
• Full basement
• 6,525 sq ft lot

Tags

• GAS HEAT
• FULL BASEMENT
• PRIVATE PARKING DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1×1bd/1.0ba + 1×2bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $589k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $718 ($9k/yr) — positive. Per door: $359/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $589k).
• Recommended offer: $571k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.4% in New Cassel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#311 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, schools D-, cost of living F.
• Westbury Union Free School District (suburban): math 28% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #531 of 590 in NY (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 183 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,148/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($153k/yr) (locally 730% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($571k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $77k; list at $589k implies a 664% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1918 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 54% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $571,330 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1918 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.22%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-49,599
• Equity at exit: $87,822

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $16,218
• Equity at exit: $50,926

Cash invested: $164,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11590

• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 16.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,148 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,089
• Tax from tax record: −$805 /mo · $9,660/yr
• Insurance: −$245
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,291
• Net cashflow: $718

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,240

Max offer price $589,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,051	-5% $884	+0% $718	+5% $551	+10% $384
Rent	-10% $232	-5% $475	+0% $718	+5% $961	+10% $1,203
Rate	-1.0pp $1,014	-0.5pp $867	base $718	+0.5pp $565	+1.0pp $410

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	1	1	$2,927
1× unit	2	1	$3,220
Total (2 units)			$6,148

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $147,250
• Closing costs: $17,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
261 Wilson Ave Unit 1ST Westbury, NY	3.0	1.0	950	$3,900	$4.11	25d	1	0.93mi
248 Fulton St Westbury, NY	4.0	2.5	1000	$5,000	$5.00	44d	1	1.00mi
35 Westwood Dr Unit 26 Westbury, NY	3.0	2.0	1065	$4,625	$4.34	44d	1	1.06mi
10 Westwood Dr Unit 41 Westbury, NY	3.0	2.0	1015	$4,585	$4.52	2d	1	1.10mi
7 Mindy Ln Westbury, NY	4.0	2.0	1398	$5,300	$3.79	2d	1	1.10mi
65 Westwood Dr Unit 93 Westbury, NY	3.0	2.0	1015	$4,585	$4.52	2d	1	1.10mi
75 Westwood Dr Unit 105 Westbury, NY	3.0	2.0	1015	$4,585	$4.52	2d	1	1.12mi
40 Westwood Dr Unit 46 Westbury, NY	3.0	2.0	1065	$4,625	$4.34	17d	1	1.12mi
865 Grand Blvd Westbury, NY	4.0	2.0	1311	$4,800	$3.66	13d	1	1.16mi
105 Westwood Dr Unit 125 Westbury, NY	3.0	2.0	1015	$4,585	$4.52	2d	1	1.19mi
115 Westwood Dr Unit 137 Westbury, NY	3.0	2.0	1015	$4,585	$4.52	2d	1	1.20mi
80 Westwood Dr Unit 205 Westbury, NY	3.0	2.0	1015	$4,545	$4.48	17d	1	1.22mi
100 Westwood Dr Westbury, NY	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	865	$4,665	$5.39	2d	1	1.25mi
55 Acre Ln Hicksville, NY	4.0	2.0	1114	$4,595	$4.12	12d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-24
   listed $589,000 Active
3. 2022-11-12
   historical
4. 1996-04-24
   soldstatus $77,073
5. 1988-04-06
   soldstatus $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,660 · $805/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,807 · $817/mo
• Expected delta: +$147/yr (+$12/mo · 1.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 54% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $73,776
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,993
• − Property taxes: −$9,660
• − Insurance: −$2,945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,902
• − Management: −$5,902
• − Depreciation: −$17,135
• Taxable loss: −$761
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$183
• After-tax cash flow: $8,795/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Westbury Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3630960
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $77,391
• Composite: 33.33/100
• National rank: #5498
• State rank: #531 of 590 in NY

Livability — New Cassel

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #5155

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Cassel, NY
• County: Nassau County · 653,051 people
• City population: 48,243
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 47,599
• Household income: $152,960
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 730.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 37% White 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 36% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 33% Other Indo-European 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -665.76%
• Current HPI: 340.5834
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+435.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-24 Listed $589,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-12 Rental Removed — ONEKEY
• 1996-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $77,073 Public Records
• 1988-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $9,660 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.