2112 Harpertown Cir

Lenoir, NC 28645

$40,000B-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 744 sqft · Built 1957 · SingleFamily · Active · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,112/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax + insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $608/mo
• Annual: $7,295/yr
• Cap rate: 24.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 65.13%
• DSCR: 3.90
• 1% rule: 2.78%
• Cash to close: $11,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $608 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#139 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D, commute F.
• Caldwell County Schools (suburban): math 38% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #106 of 178 in NC (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Valmead Elementary (287 students, 99% FRL); West Caldwell High (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #352 of 535 statewide, top 68%, 753 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 51% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 465 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Caldwell County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 24.5% vs local median 2.7% in Lenoir — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.