10381 Oxford Hill Dr #14

Creve Coeur, MO 63146

$125,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,361 sqft · Built 1973 · Condo · Active · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,519/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$201
• HOA: −$583
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $-240/mo
• Annual: $-2,874/yr
• Cap rate: 3.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.21%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 1.22%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-240 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $83k (33.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $83k (33.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#16 in MO, #1,519 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities C-, cost of living F.
• Pattonville R-III (suburban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #147 of 324 in MO (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 38% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 170 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.7% in Creve Coeur — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.