10381 Oxford Hill Dr #14 · Creve Coeur, MO 63146

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,361 sqft · Condo public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1973 $92/sqft · 31% below area Est $181k · 31% under $583/mo HOA · 38% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks

* * Seller will offer $1,500 credit to Buyer at closing * * Welcome to the highly coveted Manor Condominiums at Oxford Hill! This 2-bed, 2-full bath condo offers spacious rooms with abundant storage. The primary bedroom features dual walk-in closets and an en-suite. Enjoy the eat-in kitchen as well as host memorable gatherings in the separate formal dining room. The living room boasts a handsome fireplace and opens to a private balcony overlooking the garden courtyard and fountain. Secure entry foyer with an intercom system, elevator, and a temperature-controlled garage with a reserved parking space and storage unit. Amenities include a pool, clubhouse, gazebo, and well-maintained ground

Key facts

• Dual walk-in closets
• Formal dining room
• Garden courtyard

Tags

• DUAL WALK-IN CLOSETS
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• PRIVATE BALCONY
• GARDEN COURTYARD
• TEMPERATURE-CONTROLLED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-240 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $83k (33.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $83k (33.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.7% in Creve Coeur — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#16 in MO, #1,519 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities C-, cost of living F.
• Pattonville R-III (suburban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #147 of 324 in MO (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 170 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 38% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,690 (33.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 3.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.21%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $180,601
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -23.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $48,749
• Equity at exit: $112,610

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.24×
• Total profit: $148,334
• Equity at exit: $242,848

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63146

• Home prices YoY: 4.9%
• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,519 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,786/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$583
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $-240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,822

Max offer price $82,690

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-169	-5% $-204	+0% $-240	+5% $-275	+10% $-310
Rent	-10% $-359	-5% $-300	+0% $-240	+5% $-180	+10% $-120
Rate	-1.0pp $-177	-0.5pp $-208	base $-240	+0.5pp $-272	+1.0pp $-305

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10304 Oxford Hill Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$1,489	$1.61	3d	47	0.16mi
10368 Forest Brook Ln Unit F Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,350	$1.28	44d	1	0.17mi
10364 Forest Brook Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,400	$1.33	44d	1	0.19mi
10461 Willowdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1476	$1,875	$1.27	24d	1	0.33mi
1434 Willow Brook Cove Ct St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	910	$1,395	$1.53	44d	1	0.41mi
1380 Willow Brook Cove Ct St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	910	$1,550	$1.70	15d	1	0.41mi
10900 Oak Forest Pkwy Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	3d	6	0.60mi
9814 Greenery Ln Unit D Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	875	$1,250	$1.43	24d	1	0.82mi
9814 Greenery Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,475	$1.64	44d	1	0.82mi
9882 Greenery Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,400	$1.56	44d	1	0.82mi
9826 Greenery Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,275	$1.42	44d	1	0.82mi
18 Queensbrook Pl Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1675	$3,500	$2.09	2d	1	1.03mi
11164 De Malle Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.5	1146	$2,475	$2.16	11d	1	1.21mi
1836 Morven Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1496	$1,670	$1.12	15d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $583 · $6,996/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $125,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2025-07-31
   price $137,500
8. 2025-05-17
   listed $140,000 Active
9. 2024-01-03
   historical
10. 2023-12-14
    listed $152,000 Active
11. 2004-04-19
    soldstatus $125,450
12. 2003-09-09
    soldstatus $108,000
13. 1993-11-30
    soldstatus
14. 1983-11-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,786 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,786 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,226
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,786
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,458
• − Management: −$1,458
• − HOA: −$6,996
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$4,735
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,136
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,738/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pattonville R-III
• NCES district ID: 2923700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $50,786
• Composite: 33.69/100
• National rank: #5383
• State rank: #147 of 324 in MO

Livability — Creve Coeur

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #1519

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A- Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 20,932
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 30,678
• Household income: $84,756
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1156.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Asian 17% Black 13% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 7% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 33.10%
• Current HPI: 711.49
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.96%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+27.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-31 Price Changed $137,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-17 Listed $140,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-03 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-14 Listed $152,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $125,450 Public Records
• 2003-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $108,000 Public Records
• 1993-11-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1983-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,786 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.