4680 Tamarack Dr

Thunderbird Bay, TX 76857

$100,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Active · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,011/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$196
• HOA: −$21
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $57/mo
• Annual: $682/yr
• Cap rate: 6.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.44%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $28,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($682/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $830 of equity ($691 loan paydown + $139 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,233 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F, amenities F.
• May ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #729 of 1,141 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: May El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 120 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 46% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 254 active listings in the ZIP; 142 units permitted in Brown County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.0% in Thunderbird Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.