4680 Tamarack Dr · Thunderbird Bay, TX 76857

$100,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1986 6,273 sqft lot $21/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Thunderbird Bay at beautiful Lake Brownwood! This unique home offers rustic charm with endless potential. Built with a log cabin design and complemented by a brick exterior on one side, this property is perfect for those seeking a weekend retreat, full-time residence, or investment opportunity. The property needs a lot of TLC and cleaning up. A staircase leads to the main entrance, where you'll find a spacious patio ideal for relaxing and enjoying the peaceful surroundings. Beneath the patio is a two-car carport and a large storage room, providing plenty of space for vehicles, lake toys, and equipment. The home features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The lower level includes a bedro

Key facts

• Brick exterior
• Log cabin design
• Large storage room

Tags

• LOG CABIN DESIGN
• BRICK EXTERIOR
• SPACIOUS PATIO
• TWO CAR CARPORT
• LARGE STORAGE ROOM
• COZY WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Single Family Residence; Lot less than 0.5 acre (approx. 0.144 acres); Subdivision: Thunderbird Bay Sec I; Directions: GPS 4680 Tamarack Dr
• HOA & community: Mandatory association (Thunderbird Bay Owners' Association); Annual association fee of $250; Association fee includes full use of facilities; Community features: boat ramp, community pool, lake, park

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 covered/carport spaces)
• Utilities: City water with individual water meter; Septic; Electricity connected; Propane; All-weather road access
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Two levels; Detached (not attached to other properties)
• Construction: Built in 1986; Brick and log construction; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Covered deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Plumbed for gas in kitchen; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1 (approx. 10 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Fireplace(s) heating; Propane heating; Central air conditioning; Electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Loft; Multiple staircases; Open floorplan; Pantry; Vaulted ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Full-size washer/dryer area; Laundry area in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($682/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.0% in Thunderbird Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,233 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F, amenities F.
• May ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #729 of 1,141 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: May El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 120 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 46% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 253 active listings in the ZIP; 142 units permitted in Brown County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $830 of equity ($691 loan paydown + $139 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.44%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $217,620
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4190 Shoshoni Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (+4%)	10mo	$89,500	$74	76
5025 Tamarack Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+15%)	9mo	$249,900	$186	52
10141 Cliff Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,192 (+2%)	12mo	$350,000	$294	52
5110 Thunderbird Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (+4%)	22mo	$99,000	$81	50
4050 Seneca Cir May TX 76857	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+15%)	11mo	$298,000	$222	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $1,396
• Equity at exit: $29,732

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $19,928
• Equity at exit: $36,298

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76857

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,011 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,857/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $939

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   listed $100,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,857 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,857 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,132
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,857
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$971
• − Management: −$971
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable loss: −$929
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$223
• After-tax cash flow: $905/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: May ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829520
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,809
• Composite: 36.31/100
• National rank: #9397
• State rank: #729 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Thunderbird Bay

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1233
• US rank: #21564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thunderbird Bay, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,118

Population outlook (Brown County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,381 people
• By 2030: 38,288 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 38,120 · -0.7%
• By 2050: 38,227 · -0.4%
• By 2075: 39,362 · +2.6%
• By 2100: 39,171 · +2.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Italian 9% Serbian 7% Slovak 6%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Brown

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.9) · D 12.7% · R 86.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: -61.5pp · 2024: -73.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.9 2020: R+72.6 2016: R+74.5 2012: R+71.7 2008: R+61.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Current HPI: 101.8877
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $100,000 NTREIS
• 2002-09-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,857 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.