2801-Road Johnson Rd

Frazier Park, CA 93225

$999D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Built 1979 · Manufactured · Active · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5
• Tax + insurance: −$2
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $783/mo
• Annual: $9,397/yr
• Cap rate: 946.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 3359.49%
• DSCR: 150.48
• 1% rule: 100.10%
• Cash to close: $280

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $999.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $783 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $999).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($969) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $969 (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,064 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• El Tejon Unified (rural): math 13% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #361 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $280 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 946.9% vs local median 4.6% in Frazier Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.